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@  Cookiebrawler : (17 September 2019 - 04:27 PM) MegaMoney 90%
@  aasir : (16 September 2019 - 10:25 PM) Binary Triumph
@  traderpusa : (10 September 2019 - 01:35 AM) that was my bmw lol. E60.
@  Monoaldo : (10 September 2019 - 01:34 AM) E60
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 11:12 AM) well said.
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 11:07 AM) at least for the moment, china will hold back because of economic conditions. My guess is they want to involve PLA but simply are not in a position to do so for the moment.
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 11:05 AM) well, regardless of any agreement between uk and europe, there is still nato is trump doesn't blow it up lol
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 11:04 AM) I am really worried about HK if the PLA phase in this can interrupt the entire chain between FX liquidity and current import / export countries. I understand that we have a bunch of corporations exposed to China, now believe that 99 percent of them are stable in HK because they have a high law. If the PLA gets in, they'll substitute this economic centre with a singapore.
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 11:04 AM) Yeah, they're really a very significant player. I am informed that there is also a lot more than economic, for instance there are a number of military agreements agreed between the GB and the EU, which is serious.
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 11:02 AM) the UK being part of the EU GDP figures, but not part of the Euro only makes things a bit complicated on how to interpret numbers for trading purposes.
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 11:00 AM) of course one needs to focus on US being the biggest economy but UK is still up there. https://gyazo.com/42...39df1c7c58d9221
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 10:56 AM) I'm focused on the US, so I don't spend so much on the GB, I'm supposed to study it well since 2015, but something has altered worldwide, literally, it's an enormous step in the world's liquidity and global system, modifications are nice, but they're really colorful.
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 10:56 AM) thanks good reading
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 10:53 AM) As to China, read this over the weekend : https://apnews.com/6...f75f013bf54e6a9
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 10:51 AM) Spectacular indeed lol, this is huge to be honest
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 10:47 AM) it's gonna be interesting. MP's are leaving the sinking ship and now also Bercow has resigned. Gonna miss this guy lol
@  traderpusa : (09 September 2019 - 10:46 AM) https://gyazo.com/58...16d785753060ff0
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 10:44 AM) I am very concerned about GBP, I have decided to leave until the government is making some definite deals on the Brexit. I'm not a supporter of uncertainty.
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 10:42 AM) US It is expected to rebound until new years, because the season is coming and everyone is ready for new year revenues.
@  manfloy : (09 September 2019 - 10:41 AM) China is underwater now, and I can't even define how starving they are for dollars. Their imports fell significantly last quarter. They're trying to stimulate again, but I don't think it should work out, more than: we're back to the 2014/2015 situation. The issue with the Chinese central bank cutting off the supply of cash, the issue that they are not diversified around the world.

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What is everyones opinion on this?


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6 replies to this topic

#1 David

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 07:24 PM

What's everyone think, are we done?  Is it over?  Meltdown time shortly?  I'll be wondering as soon as we seeing some limit down days, which may be soon.

 

 

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#2 traderpusa

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 08:05 PM

To answer that you have to read up on the valuation of stocks

 

(plenty of opinions if you google it, so no need for me to copy paste links here).

 

Are the stocks overvalued or not.

 

One thing is certain, after the correction, they will go up again.

 

So buying stocks or index after a correction well away from the high will

bring you waterfall profits if you play the long game.

 

From your chart, 500 seems a good place to start buying.

 

Also from the chart, expect a bounce up now, it is possible a double bottom

will be formed, seeing a bounce up.

 

My 2 cents.


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#3 manfloy

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Posted 26 October 2018 - 12:35 AM

Hi David, and other members of this forum, i would like to give my point of view about the situation international and local. if we take in consideration the BIG picture, then i will suggest you to forget about Factor Analysis or smth like Fixed Icome sector, without explanation lol just forget it. Let's take a look at macro-economical picture lol. So the real de-bubbling comes out from our International Monetary System, which are handed by GOV and feredal reserves around the world let's take a view at G3 aka  (FED ,ECB, BoJ). Actually in this years we've got few interesting changes in that, we will start to take a look at USA federal reserve. In 2018 the FED stopping to print out money, and then they are start to selling off around $30BLN monthly and planning to increase sales with $50BLN monthly by the end of the year. Much more, they canceled the re-investing precentage. as we see from the last picture below the federal reserve high then slowly start to decline off to the south, if we compare and take in consideration our Global Equity Markets then we clearly see after the FED decision the recession start to become evident in  Emerging Markets (all developing countries around the globe) i took an interval from the last high on balance sheet back to 2015 to let you see how it's declining see picture below :

 

 

ce7917a0a5cb515c2ba696380c5fe86a.png

 

Of course after EM start to decline people start to taking off all invested assets from the markets where the EM markets became in risk-off positions, and of course start to declining drastically. 

 

Well diveing more deeply, and look closer into Global Equity Markets we can watch out ECB (Euro Area Central Bank). Start from 2018 at the latest meeting in Vienna they've got some change in the monetary system as well. ECB continue to printing money but, at the latest meetent ECB said that from 1st of Sep. they are going to cutting the volume of printing money from $30BLN monthly to $15BLN monthly, and close to 2018 they want to stop printing money at all. ECB keep the re-investing precentage to work after 2018, so if we do a little math then we can see that around $14BLN are going to be re-invested at the monthly base in the international monetary syst, so if the FED are going to liquidate around $50BLN monthly and ECB add around $15BLN monthly then we have imbalance in the international monetary system. I don't think BoC (bank of china) are going to help it somehow, cuz when the chinese drop the liquidity in the markets from their volatility and instability as we see it right now they purely absorbing back their own volatility, so forget China. see ECB in the picture below 

 

697d2391080d31575f915a0bcd447069.png

 

of course we have imbalance, of course they are wiping out lol.

let's move forward. no liquidity how that should work without liquidity ? impresse me lol? 

 

So if we add and look back at our Global Equity markets, we can add the developing country let's take SPX (S&P500) the father, from the picture below we clearly see how they are taking money out of the emerging markets and start to investing in developed markets like US equity, but hahahaha(wait... let me laugh more HAHAHA)  eco system is eco system so that won't change the situation lol. 

 

853bce6dd589db459e93220cfee58cf6.png

 

 

At the end if this  BORING post, i would like to say that the cooling & de-bubbling is an very great strategy from our governances, more than enough for a new perspectives and all the things around. Wish you all the best and don't forget that the real bear market starting at -20% from the equity. and don't forget to buy the DIP lmao, but buy it using your brain and looking at the big picture. Wish you all the best

 

 

DISCLAMER : All evaluated above are only my point of view, please before judge or comment please bring provide me FACTS and STATISTICS , other comments will be ignored.

DISCLAMER : All actions at investing or speculating around the evaluated post above going to be your own RISK, this is not an ADS to buy or sell.

DISCLAMER : Trading investing/speculating markets are highly risky for your own capital, investing/speculating may be accomplished by an institutional professional trader. Other wise you are going to lose.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ciao Andy

 


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Difficult takes a day, impossible takes a week !


#4 manfloy

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Posted 26 October 2018 - 01:04 AM

Hi David, and other members of this forum, i would like to give my point of view about the situation international and local. if we take in consideration the BIG picture, then i will suggest you to forget about Factor Analysis or smth like Fixed Icome sector, without explanation lol just forget it. Let's take a look at macro-economical picture lol. So the real de-bubbling comes out from our International Monetary System, which are handed by GOV and feredal reserves around the world let's take a view at G3 aka  (FED ,ECB, BoJ). Actually in this years we've got few interesting changes in that, we will start to take a look at USA federal reserve. In 2018 the FED stopping to print out money, and then they are start to selling off around $30BLN monthly and planning to increase sales with $50BLN monthly by the end of the year. Much more, they canceled the re-investing precentage. as we see from the last picture below the federal reserve high then slowly start to decline off to the south, if we compare and take in consideration our Global Equity Markets then we clearly see after the FED decision the recession start to become evident in  Emerging Markets (all developing countries around the globe) i took an interval from the last high on balance sheet back to 2015 to let you see how it's declining see picture below :

 

 

ce7917a0a5cb515c2ba696380c5fe86a.png

 

Of course after EM start to decline people start to taking off all invested assets from the markets where the EM markets became in risk-off positions, and of course start to declining drastically. 

 

Well diveing more deeply, and look closer into Global Equity Markets we can watch out ECB (Euro Area Central Bank). Start from 2018 at the latest meeting in Vienna they've got some change in the monetary system as well. ECB continue to printing money but, at the latest meetent ECB said that from 1st of Sep. they are going to cutting the volume of printing money from $30BLN monthly to $15BLN monthly, and close to 2018 they want to stop printing money at all. ECB keep the re-investing precentage to work after 2018, so if we do a little math then we can see that around $14BLN are going to be re-invested at the monthly base in the international monetary syst, so if the FED are going to liquidate around $50BLN monthly and ECB add around $15BLN monthly then we have imbalance in the international monetary system. I don't think BoC (bank of china) are going to help it somehow, cuz when the chinese drop the liquidity in the markets from their volatility and instability as we see it right now they purely absorbing back their own volatility, so forget China. see ECB in the picture below 

 

697d2391080d31575f915a0bcd447069.png

 

of course we have imbalance, of course they are wiping out lol.

let's move forward. no liquidity how that should work without liquidity ? impresse me lol? 

 

So if we add and look back at our Global Equity markets, we can add the developing country let's take SPX (S&P500) the father, from the picture below we clearly see how they are taking money out of the emerging markets and start to investing in developed markets like US equity, but hahahaha(wait... let me laugh more HAHAHA)  eco system is eco system so that won't change the situation lol. 

 

853bce6dd589db459e93220cfee58cf6.png

 

 

At the end if this  BORING post, i would like to say that the cooling & de-bubbling is an very great strategy from our governances, more than enough for a new perspectives and all the things around. Wish you all the best and don't forget that the real bear market starting at -20% from the equity. and don't forget to buy the DIP lmao, but buy it using your brain and looking at the big picture. Wish you all the best

 

 

DISCLAMER : All evaluated above are only my point of view, please before judge or comment please bring provide me FACTS and STATISTICS , other comments will be ignored.

DISCLAMER : All actions at investing or speculating around the evaluated post above going to be your own RISK, this is not an ADS to buy or sell.

DISCLAMER : Trading investing/speculating markets are highly risky for your own capital, investing/speculating may be accomplished by an institutional professional trader. Other wise you are going to lose.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ciao Andy

 

 

Something more on Macro analysis :

 

World Equity indexes performance 1Year :

027573183eb12d15ef9cce61b2b5dd84.png

 

Performance by countries around the world 1Year :

5e23eac2bf0872bf9cc8e1df995cdf64.png

 

Factor analysis performance 5Years :

21e2a57c511d6e59eb8b40deb4a305d0.png

 

Commodities performance 1Year : 

0157ec3dde61fb8d3f0a7a17aa1b7b84.png

 

Global Yelds :

 

60762ecfa43c99390c36d3da8277a7c0.png


Difficult takes a day, impossible takes a week !


#5 traderpusa

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Posted 26 October 2018 - 01:51 AM

And after this, Manfloy continued to scalp on M5 or bins on M1   :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


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#6 manfloy

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Posted 26 October 2018 - 02:32 AM

And after this, Manfloy continued to scalp on M5 or bins on M1   :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

 yes, much more trading on a demo account lol, btw can you recommend me some decent arrow-strategy on m1 please -)))))


Difficult takes a day, impossible takes a week !


#7 BinaryOptionsTutordotcom

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Posted 09 April 2019 - 01:11 AM

Manfloy after just doing a push day of intense weight training with my cousin who is back from a tour of Afghanistan my arms hurt and chest is soar but now my Barain hurts even more than anything after digesting this thread LOL. I think reading all your research  with as much understanding as I can that you are reminding me of the story of Jesse Livermore when he discovered an inevitable crack in the fabric of the economy that could not be fixed and capitalized on it. This also makes me think of George Soros holding out on the bank of England and capitalizing on it. 

 

      The problem is that maybe we are getting to a place on a global scale where even a synergistic rotation can not fix the unavoidable problems that exist in a fiat currency based world. Buying a dip sounds cool but a dip implies an evident bounce at some point and that is what is hard to see on the charts you have shared. Maybe the solution is to join the rotation of the big banks but we are creating strings of correlations and negative correlations so that diversifying in a safe harbor will be hard at some point. Great research and charts man thanks for sharing. I found it fascinating even though I am not some one who follows economics because the timing just always seems so out of sync with real time to me but maybe in sync with the bigger picture it is just hard to see how big or far away that picture is from real time viewing.






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