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5 minute Nadex binaries just using MACD

NadexMACD

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13 replies to this topic

#1 Jasen

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Posted 13 March 2017 - 04:57 PM

I have been using MACD as my main indicator to trade. I buy or sell when the MACD crosses the signal line. It works very well and as a matter of fact it has won 100% (12 out of 12 since March 7th). But it is EXTREMELY RISKY! I trade when I get conformation that there is a crossover in the MACD, the momentum lines up and it is not too close/outside the Bollinger bands. What makes it so dangerous is that I also pick trades that are well ITM (80% chance of winning), usually 2 strike prices away. So, really I am only predicting that the price will stay in my range and not move too much. 

 

Using 5 tickets per trade, I usually try for a return of about $90 (including fees); however, that's a potential loss of $400. I have made good money on DEMO but just few losing trades and it would be gone. I use one minute charts.

 

I am a total newbie. Can anyone suggest anything to improve this to make it less risky?

 

Thank you!

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#2 Jasen

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Posted 13 March 2017 - 06:35 PM

A few corrections:

  • Been profitable since March 6th
  • Not every trade yields $90 profit


#3 fearndor

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:58 AM

How's this working out for you?

#4 homero15

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:27 AM

I am so glad people post their NADEX experiences, I am planing to start NADEX again with a $500 deposit next week, will start demo one week, need to practice first and get things going, good luck all. :)


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#5 Jasen

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:18 PM

How's this working out for you?

Very good! Although, I did have one losing trade because I thought I would try to use the same strategy on a larger time frame with a 7pm expiry. I failed to note that there was big news that day. I still think this strategy will work, I just need to be more diligent. It's basically the same as the 5 minute binary trade; except, I wait for the low volatility period in GBP/USD to make a binary trade when MACD crosses and choose an appropriate expiry. I just started today and it worked. I will post more results.



#6 Nadex4jim

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 08:18 PM

Very good! Although, I did have one losing trade because I thought I would try to use the same strategy on a larger time frame with a 7pm expiry. I failed to note that there was big news that day. I still think this strategy will work, I just need to be more diligent. It's basically the same as the 5 minute binary trade; except, I wait for the low volatility period in GBP/USD to make a binary trade when MACD crosses and choose an appropriate expiry. I just started today and it worked. I will post more results.

 

Appreciate your sharing experience and wisdom, Jasen.  Could you also comment on the following?  Is it right or wrong?  Thanks.

 

Would appreciate your advice and opinion about trading on Nadex 5-min binaries.  Please refer to the image below when advising me on my questions.

Attached File  Nadex 5-minutes Real-Demo Spread Compare 2.jpg   176.9KB   19 downloads

1.  I want to trade Nadex because it is legal and safe for US clients.  The only way I give up on Nadex is if there is no hope to win.
2.  For one contract we pay Nadex 2x$0.90 or 1x$0.90 and we pay the market makers a spread of $9.50.  At 50% chance we have even chance of losing $50 and even chance of wining $39=50-1.5(fee to Nadex)-9.5(spread to market makers).  Does this mean long term we have no chance of making money unless our expert knowledge about the market always points us to the right direction?
3.  If 2 above is correct, it is almost like there is a Nadex house edge of 11%.  Blackjact house edge is under 0.5% and Baccarat house edge is under 1.5%, even American Roulette house edge is only 5.26%.  Does this mean if we treat Nadex as gambling, we have better chance winning at the casino, let alone the comps offered there?
4.  If knowledge about the market can overcome the 11% house edge, how and where do we acquire or buy that knowledge?
 
Many thanks for your time and advice.
 
Best,
 
Jim


#7 Jasen

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 04:37 PM

 

Appreciate your sharing experience and wisdom, Jasen.  Could you also comment on the following?  Is it right or wrong?  Thanks.

 

Would appreciate your advice and opinion about trading on Nadex 5-min binaries.  Please refer to the image below when advising me on my questions.

attachicon.gifNadex 5-minutes Real-Demo Spread Compare 2.jpg

1.  I want to trade Nadex because it is legal and safe for US clients.  The only way I give up on Nadex is if there is no hope to win.
2.  For one contract we pay Nadex 2x$0.90 or 1x$0.90 and we pay the market makers a spread of $9.50.  At 50% chance we have even chance of losing $50 and even chance of wining $39=50-1.5(fee to Nadex)-9.5(spread to market makers).  Does this mean long term we have no chance of making money unless our expert knowledge about the market always points us to the right direction?
3.  If 2 above is correct, it is almost like there is a Nadex house edge of 11%.  Blackjact house edge is under 0.5% and Baccarat house edge is under 1.5%, even American Roulette house edge is only 5.26%.  Does this mean if we treat Nadex as gambling, we have better chance winning at the casino, let alone the comps offered there?
4.  If knowledge about the market can overcome the 11% house edge, how and where do we acquire or buy that knowledge?
 
Many thanks for your time and advice.
 
Best,
 
Jim

 

I think you have a good point. If we did treat it as gambling and threw out trades without using some analysis then we would definitely lose if we only won 50% of trades. Overcoming the costs and spreads and winning more than 50% of the time on the 50/50 strike is like the golden ticket and that's what I am trying to do with using the signals. However, I haven't figured out a consistent way to win on the 50/50. Deep ITM trades have worked out so far for me though. I don't know how it will look in the long run though. If you find patterns, stick to your indicators and remain disciplined you certainly can become profitable.

 

 I have seen people do it. There are some signal services just for Nadex but they charge hundreds of dollars/month to use. I haven't tried any of them yet.

 

Does this help?



#8 Nadex4jim

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 08:09 AM

Thanks for responding, Jason.  What is the site of this signal service?

 

Best,

 

Jim



#9 Jasen

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 09:30 AM

Thanks for responding, Jason.  What is the site of this signal service?

 

Best,

 

Jim

Apexinvesting - Darrel Martin made a whole system to follow along with and it requires ninjatrade platform (it can be pretty overwhelming though) , slicktrade.net - they offer signals via text, email and tweets, and there is another one that delivers signals through an app called telegram (I can't recall the name) - they are based in the UK and charge around $60/month.



#10 Nadex4jim

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Posted 01 April 2017 - 09:15 AM

Apexinvesting - Darrel Martin made a whole system to follow along with and it requires ninjatrade platform (it can be pretty overwhelming though) , slicktrade.net - they offer signals via text, email and tweets, and there is another one that delivers signals through an app called telegram (I can't recall the name) - they are based in the UK and charge around $60/month.

Thanks, Jasen, for the advice.  Will spend some time reading its site.  By the way, I tried your ITM approach on 5-min battery in my demo account without your knowledge on the market.  Even though I had more winning contracts than losing ones, because one loss was several times bigger than one win, it was really hard to come up winning in the end.  Also, the 1 pip or so ITM advantage that we pay seems so insignificant when the 5-min contract happens to be during news/events.  If your use of the approach is winning long term, then your market vision must point you to the right price direction way more than random.  That is really smart!

 

Are there sites that tell us live event/news and volatility situation about the four 5-min binary pairs?  Thanks.  -Jim



#11 Jasen

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Posted 03 April 2017 - 10:36 AM

Thanks, Jasen, for the advice.  Will spend some time reading its site.  By the way, I tried your ITM approach on 5-min battery in my demo account without your knowledge on the market.  Even though I had more winning contracts than losing ones, because one loss was several times bigger than one win, it was really hard to come up winning in the end.  Also, the 1 pip or so ITM advantage that we pay seems so insignificant when the 5-min contract happens to be during news/events.  If your use of the approach is winning long term, then your market vision must point you to the right price direction way more than random.  That is really smart!

 

Are there sites that tell us live event/news and volatility situation about the four 5-min binary pairs?  Thanks.  -Jim

I'm in the same boat as you. It was going good and I lost most of it in one bad trade. I know what my mistakes were but you can't be perfect all the time. I don't know of any sites that have info on 5 minute binaries specifically.

 

Did you try any of the signal sites? Let me know how they go.

 

Thanks,

Jasen



#12 homero15

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Posted 03 April 2017 - 10:48 AM

This is my 3rd week with NADEX,(after a long break from them) and somethings  I think are very important, is the ITM contracts, also how much you want to risk so the contracts are filled, also the good thing about them is the option to take profit early if not want to wait for expiry. good luck Jasen and Nadex4Jim.



#13 Nadex4jim

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Posted 04 April 2017 - 09:23 PM

Appreciate Jasen and homero15's comments.  Because of the huge Nadex house edge as discussed earlier, we really need to know the price direction a lot more than random to have a chance.  I have been reading Apexinvesting.com and they mentioned some TC that tells price direction.  Do you guys know what it is?



#14 travisdavidson47

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Posted 05 December 2018 - 10:16 AM

what type of macd are you using


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