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@  kalc : (02 July 2020 - 09:04 AM) trading has made me fat anyway TP ha ha
@  traderpusa : (02 July 2020 - 06:52 AM) @kalc, getting more fat every day under quarantine lol
@  kalc : (02 July 2020 - 04:01 AM) and by the way if that guy trys to sell you stuff dont buy it, he's just ripped off some indi's over at forex-station lol its all freely available
@  kalc : (02 July 2020 - 04:00 AM) lol hey TP hows it going young man
@  traderpusa : (01 July 2020 - 01:53 PM) So is the market lol
@  David : (30 June 2020 - 08:00 AM) yall are savage :D
@  David : (30 June 2020 - 08:00 AM) haha
@  Sambo : (29 June 2020 - 05:04 PM) If there's one thing i've learned, it's that the most profitable traders are the least boastful.
@  happyjas : (27 June 2020 - 09:50 PM) We understand what took place, you won a lot of money and bought a new "BMW M4 cake", you got down on your knees, put your little hands together and sounded like this: "My name is my name, if you ask me again I'll tell you the same, I won a lot of money, and already shove it on my candy back-end, but there's one problem, everyone knows already that I ABSOLUTELY SUCK."
@  happyjas : (26 June 2020 - 05:43 PM) the R8 Audi thing -_-
@  happyjas : (26 June 2020 - 05:42 PM) :unsure: 'Can't afford the BM thing, 'just got the 2018 Audi 2016 :(
@  happyjas : (26 June 2020 - 05:41 PM) :unsure: 'Ca
@  Dyabolus : (26 June 2020 - 03:45 AM) so were u verified by David at last? how about that 'pic'
@  David : (25 June 2020 - 04:48 PM) sure post a pic
@  euro_rapp : (25 June 2020 - 04:17 PM) sorry im bragging again, i sincerly apologize. Just wanted to share with you :(
@  euro_rapp : (25 June 2020 - 04:13 PM) By the way do you wanna see my new BMW M4?
@  euro_rapp : (25 June 2020 - 04:13 PM) where do you read that closure stuff?
@  happyjas : (25 June 2020 - 07:45 AM) thanks anyways MAster David, a million times :)
@  happyjas : (25 June 2020 - 07:41 AM) *closure
@  happyjas : (25 June 2020 - 07:39 AM) feeling anxious about what I read about BOE (the enclosure, i guess) :(

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Premium Collection/Range Trading


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47 replies to this topic

#21 showbizi

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 06:05 PM

This isn't premium collection anymore though. The only way I would trade this is looking at price action and choosing one side

#22 Singh

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 06:05 PM

straddle on eur/usd can work out may be or on aud/usd for 9 pm expiry.

 

 

 

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"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
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My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#23 Singh

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 06:06 PM

boys better get into chat room lol why mess the thread.

 

 

 

Singh


"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#24 showbizi

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 06:07 PM

I'll be there in another 15 minutes if you guys are still there

#25 charlesl

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 06:09 PM

no hard for gbp usd to move 10pips at this time so no point taking a straddle.strangle would be great if strikes were available.

 

 

Singh

 

So, why aren't offers available on the lower strike and bids on the upper strike?  Because "strangle would be great if strikes were available".



#26 charlesl

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 06:38 PM

Here's an idea:

 

KIUVPZQ.png

 

Likelihood of GBP/USD movement of 25 pips from 7pm Eastern to 3pm Eastern the following day:

 

Up 25: 47
In : 60
Down 25: 38
 
In: 41 %
Out: 59 %
 
Based on the prices shown in the screenshot, a strangle trade would incur $32 total risk if one side finished out of the money.  Potential reward: $68.50.  This sounds like a good trade to me without looking at any charts or S/R levels.


#27 Singh

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:16 PM

What strikes u talking abt for strangle I dont see any strike with that less risk for a strangle.


Singh

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#28 charlesl

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:47 PM

What strikes u talking abt for strangle I dont see any strike with that less risk for a strangle.


Singh

It's right there in the screenshot: sell the 6600 3PM for 32.50 and buy the 6560 3PM for $64.50.



#29 Singh

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:58 PM

but thats a lot of risk if emarket moved to either side because risk on both side is more than $60.If 6600 sold at $32.50 means risk is $67.50 and buy side risk f 6560 is $64.50 so if one side win other side loose you will losse more than $30 overall if only it expire inbetween both your profit will be around $60.

 

 

Singh


"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#30 charlesl

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:22 PM

but thats a lot of risk if emarket moved to either side because risk on both side is more than $60.If 6600 sold at $32.50 means risk is $67.50 and buy side risk f 6560 is $64.50 so if one side win other side loose you will losse more than $30 overall if only it expire inbetween both your profit will be around $60.

 

 

Singh

 

Based on the historical data, you have about a 41 percent chance of winning this trade and a 59 % chance of losing.  However, as you say will make almost 200 percent profit if the trade is successful.  That doesn't sound like a good trade to you?



#31 Singh

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:42 PM

both side risk sell+buy $67.5+64.5= $132 and if won $68 is profit thats 51% profit if market will stay between both strikes not 200% and yes for that return and high risk i wont take the trade

 

 

 

Singh


"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#32 bravester10

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:50 PM

I would trade a strangle in the following ways:

 

i)on a slow moving pair like the EURGBP or USDCAD. where Nadex makes more strike levels available than i would expect.

ii) During news releases where Nadex widens the prices on the strike levels and per my research the news is supposed to be a dud or one which will retrace back to pre-news price most of the time. During these times, a 30-40 pip wide strangle would be great if the pricing is good.

iii) Prior to an important news like NFP, it is most range bound. Good time for a strangle or premium collection.

iv) Evening hours are mostly range bound.. lets say 5 PM to 9 PM. Good time for a strangle or premium collection.

 

So a strangle has 3 possible outcomes :

a) Price stays within the Strangle area and both Trades win. Best case scenario as you win big.

b ) Price goes above the upper level. Upper strike loses, Lower level strike wins. Overall a small loss.

c ) Price goes below the lower level. Lower strike loses, but upper level strike wins. Overall a small loss.

 

An ideal setup to trade for me would be something close to this:

 30-40 mins to expiration i find a 40/40 upper/lower level setup about 20 pips apart. If it stays within strangle area, i win $40 + $40 = $80. Otherwise, i lose $60-40 = $20. Hmm.. $20 at Risk for a $80 Reward if i am doing that right, sounds good to me.

 

Now, 1:4 Risk to Reward is great. If you can even win 50% of the time on these, you would be doing really well. Think about it, you dont need to be right all the time, just 5 out of 10 and you will still be ahead.



#33 charlesl

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 10:42 PM

both side risk sell+buy $67.5+64.5= $132 and if won $68 is profit thats 51% profit if market will stay between both strikes not 200% and yes for that return and high risk i wont take the trade
 
 
 
Singh


Your risk is not the total of what you pay on both sides. You can't possibly lose on both sides. So your total risk is only what you lose after adding in what you will gain from the winning side. If you can only lose $30 even if one side is a loser but you will make $60 if both sides win, then that makes your your reward 200 percent not 50 percent.

#34 charlesl

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 03:49 PM

 

Here's an idea:

 

KIUVPZQ.png

 

Likelihood of GBP/USD movement of 25 pips from 7pm Eastern to 3pm Eastern the following day:

 

Up 25: 47
In : 60
Down 25: 38
 
In: 41 %
Out: 59 %
 
Based on the prices shown in the screenshot, a strangle trade would incur $32 total risk if one side finished out of the money.  Potential reward: $68.50.  This sounds like a good trade to me without looking at any charts or S/R levels.

 

 

For the record, this trade idea was successful.  GBP/USD expired at 1.65766.  I didn't take the trade, but will consider it or other trades like it based on the data.



#35 David

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 07:18 PM

 

Here's an idea:

 

KIUVPZQ.png

 

Likelihood of GBP/USD movement of 25 pips from 7pm Eastern to 3pm Eastern the following day:

 

Up 25: 47
In : 60
Down 25: 38
 
In: 41 %
Out: 59 %
 
Based on the prices shown in the screenshot, a strangle trade would incur $32 total risk if one side finished out of the money.  Potential reward: $68.50.  This sounds like a good trade to me without looking at any charts or S/R levels.

 

 

Based off of the recent FX markets ranges this seems like it could be a great way to go, atleast the last 2 days on cable would have hit them both.



#36 apexinvesting

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Posted 28 August 2014 - 02:29 PM

Just invert it iron butterflies and iron condors etc..  I love those range bound markets... well truth be told its boring as all get out but its easy to combine ranges with them and just rake in the premium.



#37 charlesl

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Posted 11 September 2014 - 07:27 PM

Trading a 80 pip range:

 

M12HgL1.png

 

Cost to put on the trade: $853

If I'm right: + $137

If I'm wrong: -$358



#38 charlesl

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Posted 15 September 2014 - 06:47 PM

Trading a 90-pip range:

 

q7AGdNo.png

 

Cost to put on the trade:  $2066

If I'm right: + $310

If I'm wrong: - $878



#39 bravester10

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Posted 15 September 2014 - 06:54 PM

Trading a 90-pip range:

 

q7AGdNo.png

 

Cost to put on the trade:  $2066

If I'm right: + $310

If I'm wrong: - $878

 

 

Charles,

   If i am not mistaken, isn't that a 180 pip range, 90 each side? Thanks.



#40 charlesl

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Posted 15 September 2014 - 08:44 PM

Charles,

   If i am not mistaken, isn't that a 180 pip range, 90 each side? Thanks.

Yeah, I was just looking at it from 90 each side standpoint.






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