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Whyyyyyyyyyyyy Reversal?

reversal live trading discipline

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47 replies to this topic

#41 BOedge

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Posted 29 November 2016 - 06:19 AM

You are absolutely right but this topic is not meant to teach anything about price action. It lead to here but it supposed to be a place to discuss about reversals and our experiences.

I don't find myself in a position to open a topic and speak about PA but there are some that can be used.

Take a look here and here.

hope it helps

 

thanks, I had not see these topics yet. Will check them out.



#42 hajikiri

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Posted 04 December 2016 - 08:06 PM

So, while we have been having this discussion, I have been trying even harder to focus on continuation rather than reversal, and I have to say that trading seems a bit more "effortless" this way. Don't get me wrong, I'm very concentratet and it is making me paying even more attention to price action than ever, but the ITM's just roll in easier than when fighting with reversals. 75% ITM yester day and 80% today (4/5) I just took this trade on GU and it is a good example.

If you look at the bigger scale, GU is trending down, but it hit support during Asia and starting going up, so as it was going up this morning, I was kind of looking for exhaustion and waiting for confirmation to take a put. I pay a lot attention to Ichimoku, and after all, the sentiment was bearish all the way from TF 15 to H4.

On the other hand, it had broken the kumo cloud on TF M5, so I was open to a call as well. After breaking a trend line over the cloud, it did look like it was starting go get exhausted, with a series of bullish candles getting smaller as it approached the trend line, and then came this indecision candle just as it broke my trend line. But, big but, I watched this weak bearish indecision candle very closely as it formed, for the whole 5 minutes, though volume was decreasing, there was clearly a fight between bears and bulls, and even though it looked like it tried hard to reverse and go down, it just couldn't break down under the previous resistance it had broken and the trend line, so I thought, the MF'er is going to continue, no matter how high you think it is. Went for a call and got a deep ITM. (Yes, the kumo cloud breakout and the shape of Tenkan/Kijoun/Chinkou did support me in this decision).

Bottom line, though it can be difficult, I need to be open to what is actually happening on the market, and not letting my brain trick me into reversals before they are actually confirmed. That also opens a lot of opportunities to get on free rides with the trend, being short term or long term trends. Price can only do one of two things, reverse or continue.

LmHoi4N.png

 

PD: Price did start to retrace a few candle after this trade.

As we spoke before I know that you use Ichimoku to gauge the market sentiment and it is pretty decent in this forum at least as the way that you use it.

I know there are some other strategies and topics buy Singh and Fasih and they explained very well the potential of ichimoku supported by some educational video but still I think it would be nice that you open a Topic on 15 min section and let the others get involved on your trading style.

In fact, I'll be your first follower on that Topic. I know also that You are busy with your job and family and might not have enough time to manage a topic but let give it a try and I'm sure everybody will be more than happy to assist you with updating that.

regards 


What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#43 BrianC

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 09:18 AM

As we spoke before I know that you use Ichimoku to gauge the market sentiment and it is pretty decent in this forum at least as the way that you use it.

I know there are some other strategies and topics buy Singh and Fasih and they explained very well the potential of ichimoku supported by some educational video but still I think it would be nice that you open a Topic on 15 min section and let the others get involved on your trading style.

In fact, I'll be your first follower on that Topic. I know also that You are busy with your job and family and might not have enough time to manage a topic but let give it a try and I'm sure everybody will be more than happy to assist you with updating that.

regards 

 

I haven been asked that before, but I still don't quite feel that a new thread based on how I trade will really contribute with anything, at least not yet. I'm still fine tuning my trading style, I tried for a period of time to do longer expiry, now I am back to do mainly 5 min. and some 10-15 min. I have included volume in things I watch closely, but PA, watching the candles closely as they shape, are just as important factors as Ichimku is for me, etc. etc. So you see, right now, I just don't feel that I can sit down and describe precisely what my trading style is, and I don't want to confuse people with "abstact" explanations that are not completely clear. I wouldn't be able to launch a new strat saying; enter put or call when this or that happens.

Once I feel that I have had consistent results without changing a lot my trading style for some months, then I wouldn't mind starting a new thread. To be honest, I hope one day to be able to give back some of what I have recieved on this forum.


  • swede and dodi like this

#44 jeanjean

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Posted 10 December 2016 - 02:44 PM

So, while we have been having this discussion, I have been trying even harder to focus on continuation rather than reversal, and I have to say that trading seems a bit more "effortless" this way. Don't get me wrong, I'm very concentratet and it is making me paying even more attention to price action than ever, but the ITM's just roll in easier than when fighting with reversals. 75% ITM yester day and 80% today (4/5) I just took this trade on GU and it is a good example.
If you look at the bigger scale, GU is trending down, but it hit support during Asia and starting going up, so as it was going up this morning, I was kind of looking for exhaustion and waiting for confirmation to take a put. I pay a lot attention to Ichimoku, and after all, the sentiment was bearish all the way from TF 15 to H4.
On the other hand, it had broken the kumo cloud on TF M5, so I was open to a call as well. After breaking a trend line over the cloud, it did look like it was starting go get exhausted, with a series of bullish candles getting smaller as it approached the trend line, and then came this indecision candle just as it broke my trend line. But, big but, I watched this weak bearish indecision candle very closely as it formed, for the whole 5 minutes, though volume was decreasing, there was clearly a fight between bears and bulls, and even though it looked like it tried hard to reverse and go down, it just couldn't break down under the previous resistance it had broken and the trend line, so I thought, the MF'er is going to continue, no matter how high you think it is. Went for a call and got a deep ITM. (Yes, the kumo cloud breakout and the shape of Tenkan/Kijoun/Chinkou did support me in this decision).
Bottom line, though it can be difficult, I need to be open to what is actually happening on the market, and not letting my brain trick me into reversals before they are actually confirmed. That also opens a lot of opportunities to get on free rides with the trend, being short term or long term trends. Price can only do one of two things, reverse or continue.
LmHoi4N.png
 
PD: Price did start to retrace a few candle after this trade.


Sup sexy Brian!

Just one remark about the volume stuff! Since this morning I have been looking at the Ichimokou and that piece of shit of Tenkan that I thought was just a motherfucker got a famous utility!

Just look at is, on the undecisive candle the tenak, which as u know represent a shit about the 9 last candle is still going up, which means that despite the indi showing drcrease in vokume,the tenkan show that there is still plenty of power and the momentum is still there! I looked at the history of last week and indeed, for Breakout/PullBack at a RS/Trendline, the tenkan, on opposite candle, if still rising, give us a good sign that momentum is still there and we can destroy keep riding the wave!

Just a little thing I wanted to share! I feel really cool to havr fond a utility to this crappy Tenkan! *CLAP CLAP*
AND THAT'S THE BOTTOOOMMMM LINE!

zrgeaIQ.jpg

#45 jeanjean

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Posted 10 December 2016 - 02:44 PM

So, while we have been having this discussion, I have been trying even harder to focus on continuation rather than reversal, and I have to say that trading seems a bit more "effortless" this way. Don't get me wrong, I'm very concentratet and it is making me paying even more attention to price action than ever, but the ITM's just roll in easier than when fighting with reversals. 75% ITM yester day and 80% today (4/5) I just took this trade on GU and it is a good example.
If you look at the bigger scale, GU is trending down, but it hit support during Asia and starting going up, so as it was going up this morning, I was kind of looking for exhaustion and waiting for confirmation to take a put. I pay a lot attention to Ichimoku, and after all, the sentiment was bearish all the way from TF 15 to H4.
On the other hand, it had broken the kumo cloud on TF M5, so I was open to a call as well. After breaking a trend line over the cloud, it did look like it was starting go get exhausted, with a series of bullish candles getting smaller as it approached the trend line, and then came this indecision candle just as it broke my trend line. But, big but, I watched this weak bearish indecision candle very closely as it formed, for the whole 5 minutes, though volume was decreasing, there was clearly a fight between bears and bulls, and even though it looked like it tried hard to reverse and go down, it just couldn't break down under the previous resistance it had broken and the trend line, so I thought, the MF'er is going to continue, no matter how high you think it is. Went for a call and got a deep ITM. (Yes, the kumo cloud breakout and the shape of Tenkan/Kijoun/Chinkou did support me in this decision).
Bottom line, though it can be difficult, I need to be open to what is actually happening on the market, and not letting my brain trick me into reversals before they are actually confirmed. That also opens a lot of opportunities to get on free rides with the trend, being short term or long term trends. Price can only do one of two things, reverse or continue.
LmHoi4N.png

PD: Price did start to retrace a few candle after this trade.

Sup sexy Brian!

Just one remark about the volume stuff! Since this morning I have been looking at the Ichimokou and that piece of shit of Tenkan that I thought was just a motherfucker got a famous utility!

Just look at is, on the undecisive candle the tenak, which as u know represent a shit about the 9 last candle is still going up, which means that despite the indi showing drcrease in vokume,the tenkan show that there is still plenty of power and the momentum is still there! I looked at the history of last week and indeed, for Breakout/PullBack at a RS/Trendline, the tenkan, on opposite candle, if still rising, give us a good sign that momentum is still there and we can keep riding the wave!

Just a little thing I wanted to share! I feel really cool to havr fond a utility to this crappy Tenkan! *CLAP CLAP*
  • BrianC likes this
AND THAT'S THE BOTTOOOMMMM LINE!

zrgeaIQ.jpg

#46 BrianC

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Posted 10 December 2016 - 04:04 PM

Sup sexy Brian!

Just one remark about the volume stuff! Since this morning I have been looking at the Ichimokou and that piece of shit of Tenkan that I thought was just a motherfucker got a famous utility!

Just look at is, on the undecisive candle the tenak, which as u know represent a shit about the 9 last candle is still going up, which means that despite the indi showing drcrease in vokume,the tenkan show that there is still plenty of power and the momentum is still there! I looked at the history of last week and indeed, for Breakout/PullBack at a RS/Trendline, the tenkan, on opposite candle, if still rising, give us a good sign that momentum is still there and we can keep riding the wave!

Just a little thing I wanted to share! I feel really cool to havr fond a utility to this crappy Tenkan! *CLAP CLAP*

 

Your are absolutely right. Also, in this particular case, the buy signals are quite strong on Ichimoku, Cloud breakout of price + cloud breakout of Chinkou + T/K cross, nothing is blocking the way of Chinkou. And talking about volme, the more I watch breakout on decreasing volume, I often see that when that happens, price will often continue on the following candle, I think decreasing volume on breakout can also signal that no sellers (in this case, opposite for a put) are fighting the price down so it can continue the momentum for another candle at least. I think Tripack has mentioned something like this somewhere also, if I remember correctly.



#47 notGambler

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 05:49 PM

Hello.

Someone do you know hajikiri why got banned?



#48 samabiong

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Posted 24 January 2017 - 06:24 AM

Hi, It is really great effort from the creator of these topic and all the other contributors here and also in whole forum.

when everybody start trading binary, His mindset attunes to the concept of taking the  trade in the high or low and grew his/her idea how to catch it. in the beginning many of us didn't even know that such concept called reversals.

all over the net there are thousands of reversal strategies and they were always popular not because of their profitability margin but because they aligned with beginners and  intermediate traders mindset. But what causes emerging such point of view?

the answer is simple. Our brain :)

we look at the trend and think will it continue or will it stop. IF we consider continuing of the trend as greed and reversing as the fear then Since fear always exceed the greed our brain automatically gives the signal that trend will end soon. 

 

what helps the brains to support this idea is Image influences. let make it clear with an example.

you just open the chart and what do you see first or what helps you to identify the condition?

how do you keep the images of a chart in your mind?

the answer is Tops and bottoms.

all the terms line lower highs,lower lows, higher highs, higher lows, swing high, swing low, Choppy, trendy and etc has been identified by Tops and bottoms of the movement. In fact top and bottoms are luminous and memorable parts of every chart. So the brain adjusted itself to put more weight on this points. 

 

No put both fear/greed concept and memorable chart points together and the untrained brain instinctively tends to see just reversals.

Some traders finally get this point and teach themselves or reinforce their discipline. some find the balance between their trend following and reversal trades but many will remain on the first pitfall. 

that's why everyday they try to produce new indicator with higher and higher extreme to catch it but it just fails and fails. I remember 4,5 years ago bollinger band parameters was 20,2 then become 20,2.5 then 20,3 the RSI OS/OB was 20,80 then 10,90 then 5,95. different oscillators and bands, candle patterns, chart patterns was used and tried but still that reversal holly grail has not been found. :)

the only thing that you will find in common in all reversal topic is "why did i loose?" and the answers is "It was a waterfall unfortunately :)"

 

I don't know how to finish this post but I just wanted to make it clear a bit and explain what is the reason that many still believe in reversals.

Hope it helps some new traders and make rethink some senior loser traders.

 

happy trading

 

We'll I've heard of a concept called the "Laws of gravity" but in this case, "Laws of currency trading" which is -

 

"What goes up must come down" and "What goes down must come up"

 

Once the brain is trained to understand this concept, then the brain has to be trained to understand the causes and how to identify them on the chart. The next step then is for the trader to apply his/her skills with or without the aid of indies to achieve the desired result.


"Planning without action is futile, action without planning is fatal"  - source unknown






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