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Whyyyyyyyyyyyy Reversal?

reversal live trading discipline

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#1 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 11:53 AM

Hi, It is really great effort from the creator of these topic and all the other contributors here and also in whole forum.

when everybody start trading binary, His mindset attunes to the concept of taking the  trade in the high or low and grew his/her idea how to catch it. in the beginning many of us didn't even know that such concept called reversals.

all over the net there are thousands of reversal strategies and they were always popular not because of their profitability margin but because they aligned with beginners and  intermediate traders mindset. But what causes emerging such point of view?

the answer is simple. Our brain :)

we look at the trend and think will it continue or will it stop. IF we consider continuing of the trend as greed and reversing as the fear then Since fear always exceed the greed our brain automatically gives the signal that trend will end soon. 

 

what helps the brains to support this idea is Image influences. let make it clear with an example.

you just open the chart and what do you see first or what helps you to identify the condition?

how do you keep the images of a chart in your mind?

the answer is Tops and bottoms.

all the terms line lower highs,lower lows, higher highs, higher lows, swing high, swing low, Choppy, trendy and etc has been identified by Tops and bottoms of the movement. In fact top and bottoms are luminous and memorable parts of every chart. So the brain adjusted itself to put more weight on this points. 

 

No put both fear/greed concept and memorable chart points together and the untrained brain instinctively tends to see just reversals.

Some traders finally get this point and teach themselves or reinforce their discipline. some find the balance between their trend following and reversal trades but many will remain on the first pitfall. 

that's why everyday they try to produce new indicator with higher and higher extreme to catch it but it just fails and fails. I remember 4,5 years ago bollinger band parameters was 20,2 then become 20,2.5 then 20,3 the RSI OS/OB was 20,80 then 10,90 then 5,95. different oscillators and bands, candle patterns, chart patterns was used and tried but still that reversal holly grail has not been found. :)

the only thing that you will find in common in all reversal topic is "why did i loose?" and the answers is "It was a waterfall unfortunately :)"

 

I don't know how to finish this post but I just wanted to make it clear a bit and explain what is the reason that many still believe in reversals.

Hope it helps some new traders and make rethink some senior loser traders.

 

happy trading


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What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#2 worldshot

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 12:37 PM

The reversal dilemma is something natural in all human traders...because most people trade emotionally rather than logically...most people would think the same when it comes to trading that is why 97% fail in trading and lose money....In trading, you will need to have an edge and by edge, I don't mean to have a bullet proof system, even if you have bullet proof system you may still fail because of greed, fear and so on...so in order to have an edge, you will need to approach trading with different mindset which is unique, it is something that not many people think, so it is something unique and that is your approach to trading...once you have that mindset and approach you are ahead of more than 97% of others, then you will see windfall and that is not easily achievable but possible.


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#3 lorecavoli

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 01:53 PM

Nice topic Hajikiri.

I think there is also something looking "cool" about managing to intercept a reversal, and also easy to picture when you want to sell an indi/system/strategy etc..

 

Instead of looking for the "Reversal Dream" now I would rather manage to intercept a nice waterfall and take advantage of it, but it is maybe as hard... what do you think?


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#4 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 02:05 PM

Nice topic Hajikiri.

I think there is also something looking "cool" about managing to intercept a reversal, and also easy to picture when you want to sell an indi/system/strategy etc..

 

Instead of looking for the "Reversal Dream" now I would rather manage to intercept a nice waterfall and take advantage of it, but it is maybe as hard... what do you think?

waterfalls most of the time simply means powerful breakout so why not. In fact I do use it in my favor. just read my signature :)


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What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#5 my_be

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 03:05 PM

Whyyyyyyyyyyyy Reversal?

 

answer is easy. we all know it will reverse.

 

hard question would be, when reversal ?  :)


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#6 BrianC

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 03:06 PM

Excellent topic! Lately I have been looking quite a deal on volume combined with my Ichimoku trading, and bit by bit it got me to think more and more about the reversal vs. continuation issue and I started to realize how often I got "convinced" to take reversal trades (which often can be profitable) and how little I was taking a free ride, as I call it, and just go with the short term trends and breakouts. I understand very well why I was atracted to the reversal trades (the reasons you just explained so well), what really suprised me was how "scary" it seemed to me to go with the flow, exactly because of the reason you also explained: "What if the trend stops and goes against me"?

 

So, because of the fear of being late and lose the train, actually made me jump in front of the train and kill myself waaay too often.

 

Being conscious about this, I got on Demo to try out my "new way of thinking", and almost stopped doing reversals, except for the very "obvious" ones and started focusing and breakouts and even just going with short term trends. I'm still not there yet, still have to work on this, but for me, I definitely think this is the way to go.

 

To me, it really boiled down to: wait for confirmation! Way way too often, I was jumping in on stupid trades, including a lot of supposed reversals, without waiting for confirmation first, simply because I was afraid of going into the trade too late in the momentum or too late on the reversal.


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#7 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 06:14 PM

I don't know about the other traders by My world has been changed since i quite reversal trading. It wasn't easy. My girlfriend kicked me every time that I lost in reversals. I saw her kicks hurts way more compare to pain of loosing the reversal trade and so I decided to protect my life by quitting the reversal :)


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What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#8 my_be

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 06:30 PM

:)  :)



#9 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 06:40 PM

A dear member asked me in PM why reversal causes problem. I think my respond to him would be useful for others as well:

 

As you know martingale at least until a certain level is the inseparable part of every reversal strategies. the reason is that it is not just you that catch that point as the reversal point but many others. So it's also a favorite point for whom that take profit from your loss on that point.

It depends who has more power but most of the time your opponent got the power. that's why you need to go martingale and continue to loose.

How many reversal opportunity would happen in one trading session? If you have a conservative strategy let say 5 per currency pair. if it not very conservative let say 15. 

If you supposed to sit whole session to take 15 trade with winning rate of 50 percent for the first time then it means at least 7 trades need to be martingaled. here again come money management and how many levels will you martingale and how much do you increase the size and so on. but in fact in the end you will have 8 clear trade and 7 break even trades if you are lucky. for instructional sake let say you will martingale it until level 3.

if  your trades size are 10 then your second trade will be 25 and third most be 62.5

if you lose just 2 of your trades like this it'll cost for you 125 fairly equal to profit of 15 trades if we suppose your broker payout is 80%.

It doesn't need to be genius to identify that you have done 15 trades for all the session and you are in loss already.

 

 

Now let take a look if you just see the trend and jump on it. how many trades would you have? if you martingale it how many steps would you need?

If you honestly answer to these 2 questions then you can understand which one is better. Reversals or trend following

Happy trading


What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#10 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 07:11 PM

I know it is just advertisement video but reality is not very different with it:

https://www.youtube....h?v=FN1CcrztbPg

 

In fact as much as you can identify the overall trend you'll have more chance to win even if you trade blindly.


What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#11 worldshot

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:01 PM

Reversal and martingale = suicide, account blow up method......trend and martingale=sleeping better at night :)


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#12 mt4coder

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:09 PM

I think this topic is very important; it can define whether you will be profitable trading bins or not; at least if you are not using some robot but using a manual strategy. Below is my take hajikiri;

 

 - I have traded reversals including picking them with 30 sec expiry accuracy.

 - I have traded with the trend with outstanding accuracy too.

 

- I have traded reversals and failed miserably too; the market would simply ignore all the reversal signs and continue.

- I have traded with the trend also and failed miserably; the market would simply reverse the very instant I placed my trade.

 

So this is what happens to most; they will get a 9/10 ITM trading reversals and become a reversal trader. The next time they trade these reversals; they get 6 OTM in a row and then ditch reversals and blame them and go look for a trend following strategy.

The same will happen with the trend following strategy.

 

Here is what you do;

When you get that 9/10 ITM trading reversals; do not go out to have a drink and celebrate your winnings. Take screenshots of that market when you made the wins. Document the time, trading session, state of news e.t.c when this happened. Document was the market stack between a range or making higher highs/lower lows, how was it reacting on 21EMA/50EMA, how was it reacting near S/R levels. Repeat the same strategy under this same conditions 2-4 times and then evaluate the strategy.  

Do the same for that trend following strategy when it gives you such a high win rate.

You will notice its all about picking the right conditions for your strategy!

 

My point;

Your success with  either a reversal or a trend following strategy will be heavily influenced by the chart you choose to trade. You may be trading reversals with good results but that day when you pick a chart that is breaking highs and making higher highs; you will lose miserably. The same goes for a trend follower strategy; choosing a range bound chart will give you a bad outcome.

 

Choose your charts wisely; if you do not find suitable market conditions, wait until everything lines up. 

 

Let me give an example;

Sometimes in my trading I will pick a pair lets say AUDCAD with 77% payout; and someone would say this is stupid of me for picking it while EURUSD and USDCAD has 88% or 90% payout.

At the end of the trading session; I will be the one laughing to the bank (then to the bar). Since I picked a pair with the right market conditions and had a great win rate. If I had gone with EU due to its high win rate; I would have got OTMs since market conditions were not right for my strategy. 


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#13 mt4coder

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:20 PM

I want to leave this paragraph here by Hubba hubba. It has been the cornerstone of most trading strategies I use in Binary Options. 

 

"

I would like to shed more light into your comment about this paragraph. Specifically advising traders to stay away from reversal strategies.

IMHO, all strategies are the same. Trend-riding or Reversal-picking. They all have equal odds.

Equal odds because when our winners and losers are decided to the 0.1 pips, trend or reversal, timing is the key and not necessary if we are going with the trend or with the reversal.

Noticed i mentioned going with trend and reversal ?

 

U see, u are right to say that many can go wrong with reversal strategy but that is the same with trend strategy.

because, winners and losers are decided to the 0.1 pips and smack on the dot on the clock. Timing.

So to me, the essence of stacking odds in our favour as BO traders, is to identify and determine how deep ITM we can go for with the clock ticking.

 

Deep ITM to me is a direct correlation to momentum. As long as u get in a position and it moves in a sustainable or accelerated speed, continued direction and time (expiry) is now on our side. 

 

Trend and Reversal provides the same opportunity in terms of conditions i just mentioned. 

However, if reversal strategy is picking TOP and BOTTOM before it happens, then it is a mega death-wish. 

So i am against newbies picking out TOP and BOTTOM in a reversal play.

 

But if one is to trade the continued momentum, sustainable speed, continued direction even during a reversal, is just as good as any trend strategy.

"

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#14 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:31 PM

agree with you about the market condition and considering it. the matter is you can always see the speed easily. let me make it clear. 

You see a car that drives fast (this is trending market). obviously it cant stop from 180 km/h to 0 in a second. you'll see and realize it. if there is an iron wall  ahead to stop the car you'll see it too.

you see a car that moves slow. you can't see when the driver push the speed. the market proved to be a Lamborghini. acceleration rise from 0 to 100 just in 3 seconds. and boom you are dead before you realize it even.

In the case that the car moving toward the iron wall, the trend follower simply don't take the trade while reversal traders exactly wait for the accident and look at it as an opportunity. but again it doesn't mean they will succeed.

To be honest with you and without bragging I am fantastic reversal trader and can take good 1 min reversal in the IQ option (different from your strategy and just with PA). even i wrote the rules and made the screenshot for my strategy to share it in the forum (they are still available) but as I you told the condition was very important which was not very clear. so i was sure many will fail with it.

about  your strategy the story is pretty different. It is reversal after the fact. in fact you use cheat on broker somehow :)

  

but in the normal condition trend following strategy has easier criteria to identify market condition, provides more opportunities  and is way more safe.

I know it is difficult to deal with it for many reversal traders but the reason mostly appear because there are not many good trend following strategies around. many strategy makers doesn't know how to apply it for binary and short term. but in Forex everybody search for trend.

 

anyway, if you are happy and comfortable with the reversals and it generates the profit for you keep continue. as i mentioned earlier this topic is for newbies and losers :)


What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#15 lorecavoli

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:40 PM

I think this topic is very important; it can define whether you will be profitable trading bins or not; at least if you are not using some robot but using a manual strategy. Below is my take hajikiri;

 

 - I have traded reversals including picking them with 30 sec expiry accuracy.

 - I have traded with the trend with outstanding accuracy too.

 

- I have traded reversals and failed miserably too; the market would simply ignore all the reversal signs and continue.

- I have traded with the trend also and failed miserably; the market would simply reverse the very instant I placed my trade.

 

So this is what happens to most; they will get a 9/10 ITM trading reversals and become a reversal trader. The next time they trade these reversals; they get 6 OTM in a row and then ditch reversals and blame them and go look for a trend following strategy.

The same will happen with the trend following strategy.

 

Here is what you do;

When you get that 9/10 ITM trading reversals; do not go out to have a drink and celebrate your winnings. Take screenshots of that market when you made the wins. Document the time, trading session, state of news e.t.c when this happened. Document was the market stack between a range or making higher highs/lower lows, how was it reacting on 21EMA/50EMA, how was it reacting near S/R levels. Repeat the same strategy under this same conditions 2-4 times and then evaluate the strategy.  

Do the same for that trend following strategy when it gives you such a high win rate.

You will notice its all about picking the right conditions for your strategy!

 

My point;

Your success with  either a reversal or a trend following strategy will be heavily influenced by the chart you choose to trade. You may be trading reversals with good results but that day when you pick a chart that is breaking highs and making higher highs; you will lose miserably. The same goes for a trend follower strategy; choosing a range bound chart will give you a bad outcome.

 

Choose your charts wisely; if you do not find suitable market conditions, wait until everything lines up. 

 

Let me give an example;

Sometimes in my trading I will pick a pair lets say AUDCAD with 77% payout; and someone would say this is stupid of me for picking it while EURUSD and USDCAD has 88% or 90% payout.

At the end of the trading session; I will be the one laughing to the bank (then to the bar). Since I picked a pair with the right market conditions and had a great win rate. If I had gone with EU due to its high win rate; I would have got OTMs since market conditions were not right for my strategy. 

 

Good point mt4coder,

 

do you think market conditions influence payout rates? Lower payouts are given to more predictable (trending/ranging) pairs?



#16 hajikiri

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:41 PM

 

I want to leave this paragraph here by Hubba hubba. It has been the cornerstone of most trading strategies I use in Binary Options. 

 

"

I would like to shed more light into your comment about this paragraph. Specifically advising traders to stay away from reversal strategies.

IMHO, all strategies are the same. Trend-riding or Reversal-picking. They all have equal odds.

Equal odds because when our winners and losers are decided to the 0.1 pips, trend or reversal, timing is the key and not necessary if we are going with the trend or with the reversal.

Noticed i mentioned going with trend and reversal ?

 

U see, u are right to say that many can go wrong with reversal strategy but that is the same with trend strategy.

because, winners and losers are decided to the 0.1 pips and smack on the dot on the clock. Timing.

So to me, the essence of stacking odds in our favour as BO traders, is to identify and determine how deep ITM we can go for with the clock ticking.

 

Deep ITM to me is a direct correlation to momentum. As long as u get in a position and it moves in a sustainable or accelerated speed, continued direction and time (expiry) is now on our side. 

 

Trend and Reversal provides the same opportunity in terms of conditions i just mentioned. 

However, if reversal strategy is picking TOP and BOTTOM before it happens, then it is a mega death-wish. 

So i am against newbies picking out TOP and BOTTOM in a reversal play.

 

But if one is to trade the continued momentum, sustainable speed, continued direction even during a reversal, is just as good as any trend strategy.

"

 

I read it before in another topic. in fact when i was writing this topic i was thinking about exact same comment. and i keep the right for myself not to agree with him.

In fact the quote of a fairly successful trader doesn't justify a wrong fact. I have made exact in this forum with the proof 10000 euro in 3 days from 10 euro and just with 11 trades. 

many members has seen it on Chatroom and PM and it was planned like this in the chat room to make 1000000 in 5 days. anyway due to stake limitation in IQ it was not possible to go further safe. BUT it doesn't make me professional and doesn't make my wrong opinions right and acceptable.

Am I a cornerstone? No I supposed myself as a Sand dune. 

I wrote just my opinion and the others can decide by their selves. 


What seems too high & risky to most generally goes higher. What seems low & cheap generally goes lower.” William O'Neil


#17 PaititiGold

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:49 PM

Can all those who don't trade reversals, avoiding them like the plague, post examples of your trend trades so that others can understand clearly in a chart what you mean by trading trends. TQ

 

Btw this is the most important topic in any trading and if anyone has mastered this you will be on top of the game.

 

Conversely, learn it the wrong way then real success will continue to elude you.

 

Get it wrong, yet you believe you are correct mostly due to your current "success", your beliefs will be entrenched and real progress to the top of the game is not possible. You are worst off than the guy who got it wrong and experience no "success".  :) 

 

The larger this current "success" the deeper the belief the larger the barrier will be. It works in funny ways.  :o

 

That's what is at stake and why this topic is the most important in trading.


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#18 mt4coder

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:54 PM

agree with you about the market condition and considering it. the matter is you can always see the speed easily. let me make it clear. 

You see a car that drives fast (this is trending market). obviously it cant stop from 180 km/h to 0 in a second. you'll see and realize it. if there is an iron wall  ahead to stop the car you'll see it too.

you see a car that moves slow. you can't see when the driver push the speed. the market proved to be a Lamborghini. acceleration rise from 0 to 100 just in 3 seconds. and boom you are dead before you realize it even.

In the case that the car moving toward the iron wall, the trend follower simply don't take the trade while reversal traders exactly wait for the accident and look at it as an opportunity. but again it doesn't mean they will succeed.

 

I like your analogy. I think newbies should learn to trade intuitively and not just follow some hard rules of a certain strategy. 


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#19 skyler

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 08:54 PM

Markets are moving in 90% time consolidation - bigger or smaller its depend of time. The main problem is that we never know when trend gonna change direction etc. Most of time if you trying to catch trend he show you trend is not your friend lol



#20 mt4coder

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Posted 26 November 2016 - 09:05 PM

Good point mt4coder,

 

do you think market conditions influence payout rates? Lower payouts are given to more predictable (trending/ranging) pairs?

I cannot say I know this is for sure. From experience;- Low volume/low volatility markets have lower payout but if you can devise a strategy to take advantage of them effectively; you will perform better overall even with the low payouts. However, never go for anything below 75%, its not worth it.

 

Second; you will note that payouts decrease with expiry; Longer expiry options have low payouts. Most newbies will go for 60/30 seconds expiry where payouts are up there and add themselves to the losing majority. Longer term options reduce anxiety, give you more time as a trader to read the market correctly and anticipate trades. It is easier to create a profitable longer term strategy that a 60sec strategy. 

In 60sec, your psychology will be tested and you will need a lot of discipline and ability to act fast. All this will lead to lower performance overall.

Do not get me wrong; I have written the above since hajikiri has stated that this is meant for newbies and those who are losing; so if you are experienced; why not go for the 60sec options.


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