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@  manfloy : (18 October 2018 - 03:04 AM) so better don't play with fire and set ur stop loss if you want to be alive, and one more significative and the latest one for today : i see many traders trading perfect on DEMO, but when you pass on the LIVE trading the game will turn over 360degree, your rules your systems and your ability to keep the great job will purely dissapear, fear & greed, remember fear and greed nothing else on the chart only fear and greed, good luck
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@  manfloy : (18 October 2018 - 02:44 AM) took a fresh sucker right now on EJ
@  manfloy : (18 October 2018 - 02:43 AM) a lot of old traders around
@  manfloy : (18 October 2018 - 02:43 AM) how is going on guys ???
@  ishan007 : (17 October 2018 - 11:06 PM) neddihrehat here?
@  happyjas : (17 October 2018 - 08:43 PM) :( uh oh
@  traderpusa : (17 October 2018 - 08:42 PM) i would not have recommended long lol

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The SIWW Syndrome

price action support resistance forex sentiment psychology

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27 replies to this topic

#1 Tripack

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Posted 30 August 2016 - 11:01 AM

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We all know that some of the big market movers are Fear & Greed.

While Greed is what can keep a trader into a possible losing trade, Fear is ultimately the sentiment that will generate the most short term momentum with the biggest move around some key areas due to traders’ stop loss being hit converged with possible U-turn change of mind triggering even more orders in the same direction, leading to possible same mistake again etc.

 

 

nyXjM5D.jpg

Though it has always been an interest of mine to keep in mind what other traders might do and where/when, and those who know me on chat will know that sometimes (while I was mainly trading spot forex) I sometimes referred this the “carrot” etc, this approach has everything to do with defining where other traders stops are.

So this is an idea that I called SIWW for “Shit I Was Wrong !”, though really I’m not re-inventing the wheel.

The whole idea here is again to find areas where things go unexpectedly WRONG for the vast majority of retail traders. This concept is all about FAILURE… Nothing, expect news and stuff like that, beats an obvious setup that is going through an EPIC FAIL.
Whether it is an obvious Support or Resistance level that tries to get broken, or the contrary by going back in, or even a good Fibonacci level that was “meant to react” but ultimately fails (really a funny one to watch), a nice double-top or head & shoulder that gets suddenly invalidated, etc etc. The key concept here has that it has to be UNEXPECTED and reflected as such on charts. You will need to feel that panic sentiment kicking in and jump in riding the train with the sharks out there, eventually you will become able to pinpoint areas at times when failure may occur before they do then watch it happening with a cruel smile on your face.

Although generally more applicable to non-expiring assets, the concept can be used with binary options as well due to the fact that if you do this and time it right your setup will be followed by such momentum that you can eventually get an edge. The main difficulty here will be not to confuse apples with oranges. Trading like this also requires a minimum of understanding about forex ordering process, basic PA understanding, ideally a bit about spread & ticks, and definitely some screen time because it is all rather subjective and real-time focused.
You also need to look for this while big sharks are around for small fish like us (London, NY am etc) otherwise SIWW could quickly become CIWR (= Cool I was Right)!

I will sometimes share screenshots here but won’t spoon-feed at all, my intention is to share an idea while YOU use your brain :)
Don’t forget, it’s not a strategy, it’s a concept to keep in mind while trading like a chess player. And don't be too greedy or you will become shark food yourself.

 

 

90iWBYA.png
 
3WDzmMo.png
 
45ufLHP.png

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#2 neddihrehat

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Posted 30 August 2016 - 12:18 PM

And then another member will ask,

"Which indicators do we use here?"

"Which pairs do you think this strategy works?"

"Where are the BUY and SELL rules?"

"This strat doesn't work, it repaints, 57%."

 

CONFIDENCELESSNESS and OVERCONFIDENCE.

BOTH ARE VERY DANGEROUS as FEAR and GREED.


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#3 JustANoob

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Posted 30 August 2016 - 12:33 PM

And then another member will ask,

"Which indicators do we use here?"

"Which pairs do you think this strategy works?"

"Where are the BUY and SELL rules?"

"This strat doesn't work, it repaints, 57%."

 

CONFIDENCELESSNESS and OVERCONFIDENCE.

BOTH ARE VERY DANGEROUS as FEAR and GREED.

you forgot

"which hours do you trade this strategy?"


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#4 Tripack

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Posted 30 August 2016 - 12:49 PM

Another quick SIWW:

 

iF5Uk8c.png
 
A "carrot move" trying to lure buyers into that level above, tried and failed.

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#5 Tripack

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Posted 31 August 2016 - 03:00 AM

And here is a failed Fibo on eurusd m5, as I mentioned this is usually a fun one to watch because you can almost hear fibo lovers screaming.

 

6dnDCNR.png
 
Look at that LL-HH leg and at it's fibo 61.8 where you can see that probably many buyers were located due to the several wicks there.
Notice also that the first probable TP level (TP1) was NOT reached and the bearish bar before the arrow was enough to kill their hopes.
That generated much momentum south.

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#6 neddihrehat

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 04:23 PM

 

And here is a failed Fibo on eurusd m5, as I mentioned this is usually a fun one to watch because you can almost hear fibo lovers screaming.

 

6dnDCNR.png
 
Look at that LL-HH leg and at it's fibo 61.8 where you can see that probably many buyers were located due to the several wicks there.
Notice also that the first probable TP level (TP1) was NOT reached and the bearish bar before the arrow was enough to kill their hopes.
That generated much momentum south.

 

 

The fibo approach looks easier because of the calculated levels I think. Failed levels, hmm.

Do you think that I got it correctly?

 

a2qNl9T.png


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#7 Tripack

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 04:04 AM

Nice catch :)

I wouldn't have played the failed fibo scenario here because it didn't really fail since probably many buyers from the 618 you highlighted were able to take some profits at least around the 23.6 area, although many fibo traders will be looking for an ab=cd pattern the fail would not usually be that obvious.

However what is of importance here is that huge wick 2 candles before you entered (which happens to be around that fibo level too). There was probably a fair amount of buyers there that were taken out. If you add volume you will probably notice a good amount of fight in that candle/wick indicating an effort from retail to buy there. That effort was immediately taken down.


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#8 Tripack

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 05:05 AM

Here's a failed/failing fibo that I used for the RCG:

 

pmTA4YL.png
EUR/USD M5
I think it is self-explanatory, the point is that while watching real time that candle flirting with the area labelled "fail(ed/ing) TP1" I could feel that there was much effort to bring that candle up for 5min then that effort was shot down in the last 10 seconds, getting me to confirm the idea and enter.

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#9 neddihrehat

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 05:13 AM

 

Here's a failed/failing fibo that I used for the RCG:

 

 
EUR/USD M5
I think it is self-explanatory, the point is that while watching real time that candle flirting with the area labelled "fail(ed/ing) TP1" I could feel that there was much effort to bring that candle up for 5min then that effort was shot down in the last 10 seconds, getting me to confirm the idea and enter.

 

 

Nice trade. I think more trade examples will be great for those who wants to learn more about it.

 

Points for those who will read this in future.

  1. Screen time is important.
  2. Last moment movement is important.
  3. (Optional) Not only humans flirt, candles have emotion too, they flirt a lot.

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#10 Tripack

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 05:36 AM

 

Points for those who will read this in future.

  1. Screen time is important.
  2. Last moment movement is important.
  3. (Optional) Not only humans flirt, candles have emotion too, they flirt a lot.

1. Definitely

2. Not that much the last movement, but the panic feeling is. More important even is to think like you wanted to take out certain buyers or sellers and where (approx.) that would occur and why.

3. No comment :)



#11 Tripack

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 05:43 AM

Another example that was taken earlier for the RCG:

 

jLRLewO.png
 
This one is a bit more difficult to apprehend, and I must admit I wasn't really sure about it.
There were obvious sellers towards the support area (horizontal black line) and then even more sellers after the break. Note that this line is also a fibo 50 of that leg down towards the fractal LL.
For me the last movement there (diagonal black line) was either a carrot move or maybe more sellers conforting them in their shorts to go towards the fractal LL again, but there were news ahead at BOH.
I decided it was a trick or that something would happen with all those tasty sellers (yummy) around and went in a call (though I should've waited for confirmation). Another indication that trading like this has much to do with own judgement.
 
PS. I won't post all my RCG contest trade though.
 
 


#12 Svalbard

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 08:55 AM

love this thread, thanks. :)


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#13 ItsChub

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 10:50 AM

Love this @Tripack, going to be following this one closely


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"Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered"


#14 Tripack

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 11:25 AM

Thanks all for the support, appreciated ;)

 

I will also introduce the notion of tick volume. I am a bit reluctant to do so because it is really a double edged sword and is broker dependant (each broker will have different volume data) so use only when really obvious or you will end up looking at it only and flip a coin, believe me - only use obvious data.

 

vlA4jDm.png
 
The interesting point here is that although we have sellers, the obvious increase in volume compared to candles and similar previous same-size candles is that although there is a sell off, many traders were buyers... Since you wanna be a shark or at least a small fish with big teeth you want to profit from that information, like the big sharks algos are doing. So here we have many buyers that were wrong from the start but Greed is a powerful feeling too and as such the move up after the LL will only blow up their confidence & relief to:
a ) stay in their trade
b ) add even more to it
Then you need an excuse to enter and the lack of commitment did provide it.
 
I'm sorry if this one seems a bit complex, it is compared to some others and really not mandatory to trade if you don't feel comfortable with this approach. It's also not the one that will provide the most short term.
 
 

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#15 Tripack

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Posted 06 September 2016 - 06:47 AM

Some trades for the RCG:

 

kkmPkBl.png
Clear fibo 61.8 that went wrong creating a panic attack to sellers.
 
OXj48qV.png

Sellers picked the carrot, calling 15m.

 

GQdg2z4.png
Looks like sellers but volume indicate much fightt in that leg down, so there were buyers too, reacted at 50% more buyers picked up that 50% carrot while a more significant level was below: the 618. That move was not strong enough to resist.
 
OgpskFb.png
Two trades, one itm and one otm.
The reasoning can be seen on H1:
ELTvLFB.png
The SIWW occured already with longer term trades, some buyers were possibly caught off guard before the TL was broken and the remaining portion to reach that magnet support was small and the magnet was strong.

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#16 neddihrehat

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Posted 07 September 2016 - 02:48 AM

A 15m demo trade.

K1l6Xvg.png

 

Here's what happened in my opinion.

Price could not go above the yellow zone. Each time it went above, it was rejected. It felt like sellers were very active this time. Then price tried again, and was rejected very hard this time. Did the entry afterwards seeing how the last candle was getting pushed down again.

 

SbFkig0.png


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#17 neddihrehat

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Posted 08 September 2016 - 02:33 PM

Not sure where to put this.

But can this be another SIWW movement according to your rule?

 

nuSY8qR.png

 

About this and this?

zwQM4c1.png

 

And this?

iGizQCj.png

 

I used the arrow to find potential areas where sellers were active. I might be wrong.


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#18 neddihrehat

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 03:14 AM

I also have question regarding this movement.

Can we see a SIWW movement here?

 

CfCwlZx.png


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#19 Tripack

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 03:26 AM

Not really, more like usual PA which works really well too. There is nothing really unexpected here with that double wick reacting.



#20 neddihrehat

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 03:46 AM

Not really, more like usual PA which works really well too. There is nothing really unexpected here with that double wick reacting.

What about this one?

http://www.binaryopt...ome/#entry86451


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