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@  traderpusa : (19 January 2020 - 08:20 PM) Kurt09 you should post in appropriate thread with screenshots to prove your case
@  kurt09 : (19 January 2020 - 03:25 PM) They Analist Edward Shultz is the biggest scammer, stay away from them
@  kurt09 : (19 January 2020 - 03:24 PM) Elitetrading.co and Tradeidiea is Big Scam, they dont let you withdraw yourr money
@  joacim : (19 January 2020 - 05:28 AM) vostro
@  traderpusa : (18 January 2020 - 09:54 PM) great. good luck trading in 2020 !
@  Singh : (18 January 2020 - 03:37 PM) @traderpusa naw man, I give up, its too much to baby sit people, give them rules and guidance and then restart again lol I am better off trading myself here and there.
@  traderpusa : (17 January 2020 - 09:34 PM) sorry to hear that. Keep on looking I would say.
@  Singh : (17 January 2020 - 04:20 PM) @traderpusa Nope, was a shit show. I doubt there is a good trader out there with a good risk management etc, demo is all bell and whistles lol
@  traderpusa : (16 January 2020 - 09:05 PM) Is your guy still active ?
@  traderpusa : (16 January 2020 - 09:05 PM) all good Singh. Back to the daily grind of trading.
@  Singh : (16 January 2020 - 03:45 PM) @blessedtj Hola
@  Singh : (16 January 2020 - 03:45 PM) @traderpusa Sup Man
@  blessedtj : (15 January 2020 - 11:35 PM) hi all
@  traderpusa : (15 January 2020 - 10:09 PM) Hi Singh.
@  Singh : (15 January 2020 - 01:04 PM) Hey T
@  Singh : (15 January 2020 - 01:04 PM) Sup Fellas
@  Tripack : (14 January 2020 - 01:19 PM) Best to throw your question in a thread here http://www.binaryopt...ing-assistance/
@  forza125 : (14 January 2020 - 08:33 AM) ?
@  forza125 : (13 January 2020 - 02:23 PM) can anyone put an alert on a histogram?
@  traderpusa : (08 January 2020 - 02:49 AM) it is.

Photo

News Trading on NADEX with Binaries


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#41 charlesl

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 03:48 PM

The prices on my preferred contract USD/JPY 10AM stayed crazy through the time of the data release so that was totally untradeable for me.  I anticpated some pricing adjustments in the contracts, but selling the lower strike and buying the higher strike would have meant taking on far too much risk.

 

I decided to do some quick research on other possibilites.  I came up with two ideas.  The first was a completely different strategy.  In this case, I considered actually taking a trade that inverts the sell lower, buy higher trade.  It was a buy on a lower EUR/JPY 10AM strike and a sell on a higher 10AM strike.  The second idea was a normal sell the lower, buy the higher trade on AUD/USD 10AM.  

 

I ended up taking the AUD/USD trade which was successful:

 

cAhf8De.png

 

+ $1586

 

In the future, I'll try to have my backup plan ready so I don't have to do any quick research at the last moment.  On the other hand, deciding to sit out a trade is sometimes the best approach.  I think the principle "less is more" really applies with these news trades.  I'd rather research and find quality data releases and ignore the rest.  And if the trade doesn't make sense from a risk point of view even if the data release is high quality, well that is just not a trade I am going to take.



#42 Chronos24

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 02:43 PM

Very nice trade! Thank you for sharing the information. I'm working on being more disciplined and organized with my trading. Having a backup plan is really good idea too.

 



#43 Chronos24

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 03:19 PM

How do you choose your currency pairs? I know that is a very vague question but I've been researching currency pairs and I don't seem to be able to find the data I'm looking for. What makes the currency usd/jpy more valuable then say the eur/usd? I know the different pairs move different amounts over the weeks and months and they usually follow patterns but I can't seem to find a chart or a tool with this data. I feel I need to have a really good grasp on the currency pairs to be successful trading.

 

 



#44 charlesl

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 04:34 PM

How do you choose your currency pairs? I know that is a very vague question but I've been researching currency pairs and I don't seem to be able to find the data I'm looking for. What makes the currency usd/jpy more valuable then say the eur/usd? I know the different pairs move different amounts over the weeks and months and they usually follow patterns but I can't seem to find a chart or a tool with this data. I feel I need to have a really good grasp on the currency pairs to be successful trading.

 

 

 

As I have mentioned in previous posts, I research the movement in various currency pairs in reaction to each news event.  To do the research I am using the forex calendar at forexpeacearmy.com and historical settlement data.   If you go to that calendar you can see a list of news events.  But, if you click on the event, it will show you a listing of all the previous events of that same type in its database.  For example, here's a screenshot of the forex calendar on the site for next week:

 

Z3yzakl.png

 

Notice the event called ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.  It is marked with the icon indicating that it is supposed to be a high-impact event.  If you click on that you will get a listing of all the previous releases for that particular report as shown here:

 

YJLPfKW.png

 

From there, if you click on the chart symbol, you will see a 1 minute chart zoomed into the time of the event.  So, if I click on the chart for the July 3rd data release we get this:

 

Gyj6YEO.png

 

If you study that chart, you will be immediately suspicious of this supposedly high-impact report.  This chart is showing what happened in the EUR/USD.  It popped about 16 pips in the minutes after the release from a prerelease value of 1.3604 to 1.3620.  But, by the time of the next expiry at 11AM, it had fallen back to 1.3610.  In my view, that report was garbage on July 3rd because it didn't cause sustained market movement. 

 

Now, on the chart of the event, you don't have to restrict yourself to just looking at the effect of the data release on one currency.  Look at the top left corner.  You can select the currency you want to look at.  Also, you can select the time frame.  But, the chart will be marked to show the data release time so you can follow what happened after the data came out.  So, before giving up on this Non-Manufacturing report, I would do two things:  1) examine the effect of the data release on other currency pairs and 2) look at other days the data was released.  Maybe, July 3rd was not a very good day to trade this report, but the history of the report on other release days might show that the great majority of the time, it causes a lot of sustained movement in a particular currency. 

 

We can't win every trade on these data releases.  Even a report that causes a big movement 80 percent of the time can have a bad day where the market just ignores the data and the currencies don't move much after the data comes out.  In that scenario, I would probably lose all my money I risked in the trade.  We have to accept that possibility.  But, I'd rather take a trade that causes a big move in a particular currency 80 percent of the time instead of taking a trade on a data report that only causes a big move 50 percent of the time.  In fact, there is no way I would take that latter trade.  I am looking for high-probability of having a successful trade.  The only way I can know if it is a high-probability trade is to look back at the history of the report as I have explained above.

 

For, example, if you followed the procedure I mentioned above for the NFP release from yesterday, you could have seen that AUD/USD often makes a big move up or down after the NFP data comes out.  The USD/JPY does too.  However, since the prices of the contracts didn't make any sense on the USD/JPY, doing a quick check on the AUD/USD would have shown you that that was a high probability trade as well.  

 

You could also use this research method to get a good trade where you buy the lower strike and sell the higher strike.  In other words, if you look at the history of the report and you see that 80 percent of the time, a particular currency doesn't  move much after a particular data release, you could use that knowledge to setup trades that will make money if the underlying currency doesn't move.  


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#45 rocrfella

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 11:14 AM

 

jldPAsT.png

 

 

I happened to see this while googling Nadex and I began to read. You seem to have a profitable strategy. Everyone seemed to think that you are using a live account. After seeing this screenshot made me wonder if you are actually trading with a live account. Nadex recently changed some arrangements layout of the ticket order page. This screenshot was just last Friday, last non-farm payroll, Aug 1 2014. I happened to trade on Nadex that whole entire week. Nadex made the change before that. I wonder why your order page different from mine? You seemed to have the old ticket order layout of Nadex which led me to think you're not trading with a real account. I don't have my old demo account since it has been disable so I can't compare it and it's on a Sunday so Nadex is closed. I can't click and see the order page anyway.

 

I question why you enter trades buying a high volume of contract but inconsistently every time. The one occasion that hit me the most was that you brought 100 contracts and made a 13,000+ profit, but the next you trade you took you've only brought 32 contracts and it's on non-farm payroll? The next one I recalled is when you started hedging and not even out the contracts on both sides for not having enough money. That meant you risked every penny in your account in one trade. I used to trade like this once. It was when I first started out trading with a demo account, fake money, no regrets, no sting attach and nothing to lose. Doing this with a real account is reckless.

 

Reason for this post is people who have been following this post, please trade with what you can afford and discretion. Don't get blind sided by the profits you see here and be motivated to do the same. In reality, chances are they're not this good every time and not every trade will produce this much profit.



#46 Chronos24

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 02:39 PM

Charlesl thank you for the in depth response to my questions I really appreciate it, your trading strategy is helping me shape mine and making me think in different ways.

Rocfella I appreciate the analysis, but even if this is "demo" the trading he is doing is profitable. You bring up some valid points but this screenshot that shows his account http://imgur.com/euKGWYk doesn't look like a demo account to me. This is a screenshot from my old demo account and you can clearly see it says demo in the top left corner.  

http://i.imgur.com/7L5mNEU.png
 

I agree good risk management is key to being a profitable trader. 


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#47 shovon21

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 02:43 PM

I happened to see this while googling Nadex and I began to read. You seem to have a profitable strategy. Everyone seemed to think that you are using a live account. After seeing this screenshot made me wonder if you are actually trading with a live account. Nadex recently changed some arrangements layout of the ticket order page. This screenshot was just last Friday, last non-farm payroll, Aug 1 2014. I happened to trade on Nadex that whole entire week. Nadex made the change before that. I wonder why your order page different from mine? You seemed to have the old ticket order layout of Nadex which led me to think you're not trading with a real account. I don't have my old demo account since it has been disable so I can't compare it and it's on a Sunday so Nadex is closed. I can't click and see the order page anyway.

 

I question why you enter trades buying a high volume of contract but inconsistently every time. The one occasion that hit me the most was that you brought 100 contracts and made a 13,000+ profit, but the next you trade you took you've only brought 32 contracts and it's on non-farm payroll? The next one I recalled is when you started hedging and not even out the contracts on both sides for not having enough money. That meant you risked every penny in your account in one trade. I used to trade like this once. It was when I first started out trading with a demo account, fake money, no regrets, no sting attach and nothing to lose. Doing this with a real account is reckless.

 

Reason for this post is people who have been following this post, please trade with what you can afford and discretion. Don't get blind sided by the profits you see here and be motivated to do the same. In reality, chances are they're not this good every time and not every trade will produce this much profit.

 

Nadex did change their ticket layout at the beginining of last week (or may be a little earlier), BUT changed back to their old lay out by the end of the week.. Moreover, the demo skin color is still light blue, whereas the skin color of real account is dark blue. Finally, if you see the history page on post 41, the url is www.nadex.com/..... whereas, on demo account, it starts with demo.nadex.com/.......


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#48 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 03:50 PM

I happened to see this while googling Nadex and I began to read. You seem to have a profitable strategy. Everyone seemed to think that you are using a live account. After seeing this screenshot made me wonder if you are actually trading with a live account. Nadex recently changed some arrangements layout of the ticket order page. This screenshot was just last Friday, last non-farm payroll, Aug 1 2014. I happened to trade on Nadex that whole entire week. Nadex made the change before that. I wonder why your order page different from mine? You seemed to have the old ticket order layout of Nadex which led me to think you're not trading with a real account. I don't have my old demo account since it has been disable so I can't compare it and it's on a Sunday so Nadex is closed. I can't click and see the order page anyway.

 

I question why you enter trades buying a high volume of contract but inconsistently every time. The one occasion that hit me the most was that you brought 100 contracts and made a 13,000+ profit, but the next you trade you took you've only brought 32 contracts and it's on non-farm payroll? The next one I recalled is when you started hedging and not even out the contracts on both sides for not having enough money. That meant you risked every penny in your account in one trade. I used to trade like this once. It was when I first started out trading with a demo account, fake money, no regrets, no sting attach and nothing to lose. Doing this with a real account is reckless.

 

Reason for this post is people who have been following this post, please trade with what you can afford and discretion. Don't get blind sided by the profits you see here and be motivated to do the same. In reality, chances are they're not this good every time and not every trade will produce this much profit.

 

A healthy dose of skepticism is wise when reading anything on an online forum.  I think it is dishonest to post screenshots of completed demo trades without clearly telling people that the trades are from a demo.  After all, the point of a demo account is to try out stuff.  Often, people don't trade a live account the way they trade a demo account.  That is probably a good thing.  I haven't explicitly said whether the screenshots I have posted are demo or live because in my way of thinking you only need to indicate that if your account is a demo.  For the record, all the screenshots you have seen in this thread are from a live account and therefore using real money.

 

Regarding how to determine if someones screenshots of completed trades are from demo or live, I think the best way is simply to look up the trades in the Time and Sales document that NADEX posts on their website at http://www.nadex.com...-and-sales.html.  That page says they update it every 15 minutes.  It has a record of every binary or spread order completed on the site for the current day.  If the screenshot shows that the trade was supposedly completed today and at the end of the day you can't find the trade, then that tells you that the trade was on a demo account.  Unfortunately, it is hard to scrutinize older trades since the time and sales document only shows you the transactions in the current business day.  But, I think that that is the gold standard for detective work on someone's NADEX screenshots.  According to that Time and Sales link, NADEX Customer service will even give you historical Time and Sales info if you call them up.  So, if you are really determined to research older trades you can.  

 

In the case of the trades shown in this thread, I have  announced the day before the event that I was planning to take a trade on the report.  The point of doing that has been to put the idea out there so that people can do their own research on the history of the report.  I wouldn't announce the report as one I intend to trade ahead of time if I didn't think the report was a worthy one to trade.  In previous posts, I have explained a method for screening the reports for quality to determine if you should bother trading them (and risking your hard-earned money on them).   Once I go through this process, I make my determination as to whether to trade the report or not.  If I decide to trade it, I have announced here and then come back later in the day to post the results of taking the trade.  That is what I intend to continue doing.

 

Regarding your analysis of contracts sizes and the amounts risked on the trade, I don't think you have sufficient details about my trading account or my financial situation to call my trades reckless.  And the point of the the thread is in the title "News trading on NADEX with binaries".  I hope the main point that people get out of the thread is the method that I am using to analyze the economic reports and how I implement the trades from the standpoint of the strikes I choose to trade.  Trying to read anything into the number of contracts or the amount of money I am putting at risk on each trade is not what I hope people will focus on.  Each trader has his own financial situation.  Thus I agree with your advice that a trader should not trade beyond his means.  If you lose your rent money trading, then that truly would be unfortunate and irresponsible.

 

Finally, it is true that I am not posting every NADEX trade that I make in this thread.  One reason for that is that the topic of the thread is "News trading on NADEX with binaries".  Not every trade I take is a trade based on the news.  Therefore, those trades have no relevance to the thread.  What I have done is announced ahead of time the trades that fit the criteria of the thread and posted the results of those trades.  That seems to me like a very honest way to present a trading strategy. 

 

Let me suggest to other readers of the thread that you might benefit from doing what I have done in announcing the trades you want to take in the day or hours before the report comes out.  That will sort of make you accountable for the trades you decide to take.  Because everyone will expect you to come back and post up your results.  Most people probably wouldn't want the whole world to see their mistakes and losses.  If that is true, then perhaps knowing that you will have to come back here and confess the result of your trades will make you stick to your trading plan and not be reckless.  After all, this whole thread is about trading slow and thoughtfully.  We can do our research and put together a trading plan well in advance of the time the data will be released.  We aren't sitting in front of the computer for hours every day waiting for trades to take.  This method is about knowing exactly when the data is coming out, researching the history of the report and then going in an executing the strategy when the time comes.  Often, we only have to wait 45 minutes are at most 2 hours to know if our carefully-planned trade actually worked or not.  Then, we can get on with our day.


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#49 Singh

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 04:19 PM

Hey charles

I have a question so whenever somone wins a trade then who is loosing that money?

I know its not traders or nadex so is it market maker?


SINGH

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My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#50 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 04:27 PM

The vast majority of the orders on NADEX are filled by market makers.  These are companies whose job is to provide liquidity to the markets NADEX offers.  When you see 100 contracts available to be sold or bought most likely the market making companies who have contracts with NADEX are the source of the contracts.

 

However, theoretically, your fellow traders could be on the other side of the trade.  For example, you will typically see all the large numbers of available contracts disappear with two minutes to go before expiry.  When you see that, it means the market makers are gone.  Then, you might see 1 contract or two contracts available in that last two minute period.  Those are probably bids and offers from little traders like us.  So, if you bought or sold one of those, then a fellow trader is probably on the other side.



#51 Singh

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:25 PM

Tonights aud news looks good after going through fpa news history I found it tends to move market more than 20pips even on sunday. Will do a demo trade for 10pm expiry but not straddle but a new idea which popped in my head 2 days ago. Will let you guys know how it went.

Singh

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#52 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:38 PM

Tonights aud news looks good after going through fpa news history I found it tends to move market more than 20pips even on sunday. Will do a demo trade for 10pm expiry but not straddle but a new idea which popped in my head 2 days ago. Will let you guys know how it went.

Singh

Hey Singh.....don't make us wait to hear your plan.  Please lay it out for us before the data release.  I am working on an idea myself.  Just like you I did some research and I saw that the straddle idea is not a high-probability trade.  



#53 Singh

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:49 PM

Well idea is simple instead of doing straddle on current price I will do a straddle of pending order at about 9:25 to 9:27.

Lets say at 9:25 there is a price quote for $30 to buy above the market and sell $70 for below the market instead of taking those I will place a pending order of buy @40 and sell @60 so news comes 1 of those will gey hit and I can save the other side losing money by canceling pending order .one more thing I will put pending orders for take profit as well and because my risk will be less than regular straddle I can tighten my take profit as well. Lot of work tho and u gotta be quick .

Juat an idea .


Singh

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#54 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:53 PM

Singh, if I understand correctly what you are saying, you definitely don't want to do that.  Let's talk about it on the chat.



#55 Singh

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:59 PM

Yes ppl charles is right its a shitty idea because its not doable if it was doable then it was great lol anyways please dont us my idea as I just realized by talking to charles that if u buy or sell above or below the market orders get filled right away at current price and it will bcome regular straddle so ignore m post period.

Singh

"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#56 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 06:30 PM

Tonight we have the Australia Retail Sales report.  Let's see if we can do some analysis of this thing together to see if it is worth our time (and the risk to our money).  Comments welcome.

 

Here's the chart from the last release which had a NADEX business date of July 3rd.

 

utvZN2o.png

 

And here's the chart from the June release with a NADEX business date of June 3rd.

 

Ei1fwcD.png

 

 

And the May release with a NADEX business date of May 7th:

 

29CvrMK.png

 

And the release from April with NADEX business date of April 3rd

 

URjEV78.png

 

 

 

And the release from NADEX business date March 6th.

 

z22wXLD.png

 

 

February release: NADEX business date of February 6th.

 

hAGCNbK.png

 

 

And finally the data from NADEX business date January 9th:

 

I think going back to January is far back enough.

 

hiHD7Mf.png



#57 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 07:25 PM

The July data shows AUD/USD trading at 9390 right before the release.  It spikes down to 9370.  Then, pops back up and by the next expiry, it was 9384.  So, under my preferred trade of holding until expiry, it looks like a straddle was a sure loser.  However, what the 1M chart doesn't show is that AUD/USD dropped like a rock well before the release.  So, in reality a straddle trade taken early enough would have been a successful trade if held until expiry.  Anyway, I think we should ignore the July data, because the Australia Building Approvals report was released at the same time.

 

We need to compare apples to apples to assess the quality of a data release.  For the July data, we don't know if the retail sales data caused the big movement or if the building data caused it.  I suspect it was the building data.

 

What about the June data?  It was released along with something called the current account.  That was probably a minor impact.  Retail sales data probably controlled in that case. (I am guessing really).  Anyway, right before release, AUD/USD was at 9237.  It spiked up to 9257 or so before pulling back to just about exactly where it was before the release.  I think a straddle held to expiry would not have worked.  Would a straddle with a take profit order have worked?  Maybe.  I am not sure.  The middle strike on that day was at level  9243 meaning that you could have placed a straddle on 9233/9253 or perhaps 9223/9263.  So, let's say you took the 9233/9253 and you paid sold the lower at $75 and bought the higher at $25.  Your risk is $50 total.  Since AUD/USD went to 9257, is that enough to send your 9253 strike high enough to make a profit.  Well, it must have hit $50 when it crossed 9253.  That was the break-even point.  Had you sold there you could have covered the cost of both positions and reap $0 profit.  But, it passed 9253 and went up to about 9257.  So, how much more past $50 would the 9253 contract have been valued at.  $60? $65?  If so, subtract $50 from that and that was your potential profit.  I think the more likely scenario is that you would have set your take profit order to sell the upper strike at about $75.  However, it probably didn't reach that level and you watched it go right back down.  In the end, AUD/USD ended at 9238.  So, that could have been a case of losing the whole investment.



#58 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 08:11 PM

May data?  AUD/USD was at 9346 before release.  Then, it dropped to 9332.  Then it popped back up to the prerelease level then went a little bit higher....

 

Long and the short of it, is that for someone looking to hold until expiry, this report looks like a dog.



#59 charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 08:53 PM

Here's another idea....I really don't believe in this Australian retail sales report.  So, why not trade counter to it, rather than just sitting it out?  In other words, if I really believe a 3/7 or a 4/6 straddle is not going to be profitable if held until expiry, I could choose to wait for the data release and then put on a short at the upper strike it there is a spike upward or a put on a long at the lower strike if there is a spike down.

 

As an example, tonight the middle strike on the AUD/USD was at level 9310.  The strike right above was at 9320.  If we count strike number 1 from the lowest level of AUD/USD, that means that the strike at the 9320 level is number 6.  So, we could talk about for example a 4/6 straddle.  That means strike level 9300 on the lower strike and 9320 on the upper strike.

 

After tonight's data release the 9320 contract spike up to $86.  Since I am not a believer in this report, I think that even though that report jumped up in price, it will probably fall back down before expiry.  If I really believe that, then why not short it at $86 and ride it down!  That would be a low-risk trade with the possiblity of a huge reward if my analysis of the poor quality of the report is correct.  

 

I am going to tuck that idea away for future reference.

 

I guess in the end, there is a ton of different ways we can make money on these NADEX contracts.



#60 charlesl

charlesl

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 09:02 PM

For the record, that strike at level 6 expired OUT OF THE MONEY.  A short from the $86 level would have been ideal returning more than 500 percent.  

 

If you had traded the 4/6 with a take profit order you would have made money on it.  But, held to expiry would have been a loser on both sides.  






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