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@  kalc : (02 July 2020 - 09:04 AM) trading has made me fat anyway TP ha ha
@  traderpusa : (02 July 2020 - 06:52 AM) @kalc, getting more fat every day under quarantine lol
@  kalc : (02 July 2020 - 04:01 AM) and by the way if that guy trys to sell you stuff dont buy it, he's just ripped off some indi's over at forex-station lol its all freely available
@  kalc : (02 July 2020 - 04:00 AM) lol hey TP hows it going young man
@  traderpusa : (01 July 2020 - 01:53 PM) So is the market lol
@  David : (30 June 2020 - 08:00 AM) yall are savage :D
@  David : (30 June 2020 - 08:00 AM) haha
@  Sambo : (29 June 2020 - 05:04 PM) If there's one thing i've learned, it's that the most profitable traders are the least boastful.
@  happyjas : (27 June 2020 - 09:50 PM) We understand what took place, you won a lot of money and bought a new "BMW M4 cake", you got down on your knees, put your little hands together and sounded like this: "My name is my name, if you ask me again I'll tell you the same, I won a lot of money, and already shove it on my candy back-end, but there's one problem, everyone knows already that I ABSOLUTELY SUCK."
@  happyjas : (26 June 2020 - 05:43 PM) the R8 Audi thing -_-
@  happyjas : (26 June 2020 - 05:42 PM) :unsure: 'Can't afford the BM thing, 'just got the 2018 Audi 2016 :(
@  happyjas : (26 June 2020 - 05:41 PM) :unsure: 'Ca
@  Dyabolus : (26 June 2020 - 03:45 AM) so were u verified by David at last? how about that 'pic'
@  David : (25 June 2020 - 04:48 PM) sure post a pic
@  euro_rapp : (25 June 2020 - 04:17 PM) sorry im bragging again, i sincerly apologize. Just wanted to share with you :(
@  euro_rapp : (25 June 2020 - 04:13 PM) By the way do you wanna see my new BMW M4?
@  euro_rapp : (25 June 2020 - 04:13 PM) where do you read that closure stuff?
@  happyjas : (25 June 2020 - 07:45 AM) thanks anyways MAster David, a million times :)
@  happyjas : (25 June 2020 - 07:41 AM) *closure
@  happyjas : (25 June 2020 - 07:39 AM) feeling anxious about what I read about BOE (the enclosure, i guess) :(

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News Trading on NADEX with Binaries


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#21 Chronos24

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 09:07 PM

I have some questions, When or how do you decide when the best time is to buy a position for your trade? What do you set your take profit orders at? or what is the criteria you use to set them up.  Do you set take profit orders? 



 



#22 charlesl

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:00 PM

I have some questions, When or how do you decide when the best time is to buy a position for your trade? What do you set your take profit orders at? or what is the criteria you use to set them up.  Do you set take profit orders? 



 

 

Most of the data releases that I trade occur on the half-hour, such as 8:30am Eastern.  I prefer to get in within 15 minutes of the release in that case.  I don't want to get in too early because as time passes (all other things being equal) the contract prices should get more favorable and I can get in at a reduced price on both sides.  The other reason I don't want to get in too early is to try to avoid a scenario in which I put on the straddle too early and the underlying asset moves close to one side of the straddle but then when the data is released is moves toward the other side of the straddle.  That would potentially increase the amount of movement needed to be profitable and perhaps lower the probability of a successful trade.  By waiting closer to the time of the release, it helps to minimize the amount of movement needed for a good trade.

 

Regarding take profit orders, I don't use them.  In general, I only want to trade reports that I believe will produce movement significant enough to allow a position to be held until expiry.  However, if for some reason I feel that I need to exit a position early, I will just use my discretion and do that manually.  I typically sit and watch the action at the release.  So, I can always get out if I feel the need.

 

Since I don't use take profit orders, it means that I could very well miss out on profitable trades.  For example, when I look at the charts of the history of a data release, I focus on where the market was in the minute before the release and where it is 30 minutes later or 1 hour and 30 minutes later.  If the movement is small, I skip that trade.  However, someone who is trading with take profit orders might make money on it.  Because in the minute that the data is released, there could be a quick run up or down in the asset that would trigger a take profit order.  That is a profit I would miss.

 

Why skip trades like that?  I believe less trading is more.  I would rather just wait for what I consider a higher quality data release.  By higher quality, I mean the big move up or down is sustained until the next expiry on the contract (say 9am, for example) or the expiry after that (say 10am, for example).  As a specific example, I looked at the history of the Australian CPI release.  For at least the last 6 reports, it moved up/down 40 pips or more and stayed there for hours after the data release.  That is what I consider an example of the highest quality data release.  By contrast, today there was a New Home Sales report out of the US.  Looking at the history of that report, often the underlying asset isn't far from where it was before the data release.  It may yield some good movement in the minute of the release, but if that movement isn't sustained until the next expiry, I'm just not interested.  


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#23 Singh

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:44 PM

wow charles very usefull information.

 

Singh


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#24 Chronos24

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 11:34 PM

That is the information I have been looking for! Thank you very much, I really like the details about the price and take profit orders, and how you consider the trade. 



#25 charlesl

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 05:12 PM

Tomorrow, there are two potentially market-moving releases that will be released with 15 minutes of each other.  First, there is the ADP employment report, then 15 minutes later the Advance GDP quarterly report.  I'll be thinking of these two events essentially as one for the purpose of trading a binary.  That means I'll get in before the ADP figure comes out and hold until after the GDP.  I'll trade the 9am binary.



#26 charlesl

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 08:22 AM

This trade was successful.

 

euKGWYk.png

 

+ $13200


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#27 David

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 08:48 AM

This trade was successful.

 

euKGWYk.png

 

+ $13200

 

I believe this is the definition of "killing it" charles!  That was a very nice staddle, you caught that perfectly.  What was the reason you specifically went for this news trade though?



#28 Singh

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 11:35 AM

wow an thats too on a real account....man u killed it really.....congrats

 

 

 

 

Singh


"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching."
- Jesse Livermore

 

My Youtube channel for trading videos -  https://www.youtube....user/mindpl4y3r


#29 Chronos24

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 01:31 PM

Hats off to you Charlesl, If I could I would give you a standing ovation. Well played sir, very well played.



#30 charlesl

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 03:25 PM

I believe this is the definition of "killing it" charles!  That was a very nice staddle, you caught that perfectly.  What was the reason you specifically went for this news trade though?

 

For these news trades, I am trying to keep one basic principle in mind:

 

We are intentionally creating a situation where we will lose all our money if the market doesn't move well after the data release.  So, whatever data release we pick, we better know the market has a high probability of moving before we take the trade.

 

If history shows the report is not consistent in causing a sustained move, I am just not interested.  I want to go into the trade with the full expectation that I will be able to hold until expiry.  Of course, I might choose to get out early, but I choose a report based on the expectation that I won't have to.  If I don't have that expectation, I am just not interested in trading the report.

 

So, why trade the ADP report and the GDP report?  Well, I really was focused mainly on the GDP report.  The ADP was significant, but if it was the only report of the day, I don't think I would have taken it.  

 

So, why the GDP report?  This was the Advance GDP report.  It doesn't come out every month.  The Advance report comes out quarterly.  Since it is the first report to give a hint about GDP, it is more significant than the Final GDP report.  Whenever, I am considering trading a data release, I look at the history of what happened on previous reports.  From the research I did, I could see that the Advance GDP report consistently causes market movement.  Also, I looked at historical settlement results for the 9am and 10am contracts which are the first two expiries after the release.  Looking at that data, I could see exactly which binary contracts finished in the money and out of the money at those times.  I used that information to select the contracts that I chose to trade.

 

So, the bottom line answer to your question is:  history of the data report.  Looking at the history of what happens in the market after the data release, you can pretty much tell which data releases justify the risk of the type of trade we are putting on. 


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#31 DuckOwner

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 04:07 PM

Hello All,

 

I've been following the forum anonymously but have so many questions now I figured I might as well join.  

 

I've been studying Nadex binaries for several weeks and decided this morning I would trade on the GDP as my first real trade (real money).  I started watching around 0745 because of the other "big news" events preceding the GDP by 15 minutes each.  Prices looked good on EUR/USD but I then realized I had no rule for deciding how to set up my strangle (straddle?).  I expected a movement of 20pips based on previous charts, but was I supposed to set a strangle at e.g. 1.338 to 1.342, or maybe 1.338 to 1.340, or even more spread apart? How should i decide that?  Also, apparently my choice of currency pair may have been wrong since I do not have the expiration data?  

 

I am now looking to Friday and the Non-Farm 0830 as a possible trade. Any thoughts on which currency pair and set up on the straddle?  I have just been defaulting to EUR/USD in the Nadex demo account, but I suppose there is a better way?

 

Thanks for any help! 


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#32 DuckOwner

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 04:17 PM

I've never let a position just expire in the money, but you actually get paid then if it does expire in the money? and I see a 9a.m. expiry for Charlesl trade, I've never seen a 9a.m.? 


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#33 charlesl

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 04:37 PM

Hello All,

 

I've been following the forum anonymously but have so many questions now I figured I might as well join.  

 

I've been studying Nadex binaries for several weeks and decided this morning I would trade on the GDP as my first real trade (real money).  I started watching around 0745 because of the other "big news" events preceding the GDP by 15 minutes each.  Prices looked good on EUR/USD but I then realized I had no rule for deciding how to set up my strangle (straddle?).  I expected a movement of 20pips based on previous charts, but was I supposed to set a strangle at e.g. 1.338 to 1.342, or maybe 1.338 to 1.340, or even more spread apart? How should i decide that?  Also, apparently my choice of currency pair may have been wrong since I do not have the expiration data?  

 

I am now looking to Friday and the Non-Farm 0830 as a possible trade. Any thoughts on which currency pair and set up on the straddle?  I have just been defaulting to EUR/USD in the Nadex demo account, but I suppose there is a better way?

 

Thanks for any help! 

 

You say that your analysis of the history of this data release showed an expected move of 20 pips from in the EUR/USD after the data release.  The NADEX contracts at 8am (30 minutes before the GDP data came out) on EUR/USD expired at 1.34016.  So, at 8am using your 20 pips expectation, you would have sold a contract 20 pips below 1.34016 and bought one 20 pips above 1.34016.  

 

The 9am contracts that were available on EUR/USD were:

 

1.3360

1.3370
1.3380
1.3390
1.3400
1.3410
1.3420
1.3430
1.3440
 
So, with all that in mind, the contracts that fit your analysis best were to sell 1.3380 and buy 1.3420.
 
As it turns out the 9am contract expired at 1.33761 meaning that your trade would have been successful because the 1.3380 that you would have sold would have paid out $100 to you per contract.

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#34 charlesl

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 04:42 PM

I've never let a position just expire in the money, but you actually get paid then if it does expire in the money? and I see a 9a.m. expiry for Charlesl trade, I've never seen a 9a.m.? 

 

There is a 9am expiry on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.  The 9am expiry in those currencies have been around for a while.

 

If you hold your contract until it expires, you will get paid $100 per contract if you were right about selecting your direction.  If you buy a contract and the underlying currency finishing at or below the strike price stated in the contract, you won't be paid anything.  If you had sold that same contract, you would be paid $100 per contract.

 

That aspect of how the binaries work is quite fundamental.  Let me kindly suggest that you remain on the demo for a while longer.  You should take some trades and see what happens at expiry so you can understand them well before you commit real money to trading.


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#35 DuckOwner

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:47 PM

Thanks so much for the quick response! Very helpful and I will take your advice!



#36 Singh

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 07:07 PM

Btw on demo nadex already rolled out new expiry times eur usd as 4tick wide and aud usd as 5 tick wide pretry good

Singh
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#37 charlesl

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 11:08 PM

Tomorrow we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report.  This should be a market mover giving us a trading opportunity.  I will be in the 10AM contract.



#38 charlesl

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 06:11 AM



Tomorrow we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report.  This should be a market mover giving us a trading opportunity.  I will be in the 10AM contract.

 

Wow....I think the market makers are on to us.  If the prices stay as shown below, this report will be untradeable in the way I was planning to trade it.  We'll see.

 

jldPAsT.png

 

Note the current price of USD/JPY in the order entry ticket (according to the Nadex Indicative Index).  And note the prices on the contracts at each strike level.



#39 Chronos24

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 07:12 AM

I'm hoping the prices drop down a bit as well. I haven't been doing this a long time, but I've never seen prices like that. 



#40 Chronos24

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 12:45 PM

I won my trade today, Grand profit of $36 dollars! lol. Hope you won yours! 






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